One Shot Can Start A War

Civil Defense Perspectives May 2014 Vol. 30 No. 4
[published July 2014]

Long before Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, by a group of five Serbs and one Bosnian Muslim, shots fired by a British militia company at Jumonville Glen, near what is now Pittsburgh, launched what some consider a world war. The French and Indian War, also known as the Seven Years War, killed at least a million men, women, and children in North America, South America, Europe, Cuba, Africa, India, Cuba, the Philippines, and the Caribbean. The young lieutenant colonel who lost control of his men was George Washington, writes Richard Maybury (EWR, May 2014).

Triggering a world war requires deployed armies, alliances, and feuds—which are present in abundance. There are many good reasons for avoiding war, but 14,000 wars have nevertheless occurred. How can war be stopped? Exhausted by war, European powers signed the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 (CDP, January 2011). The principle was that no nation could attack another in the absence of a “clear and present danger.” After World War II, the first-ever trials before an international tribunal convicted Germans for “war crimes.” Principle 6-a from the Nuremberg Trials was supposed to enforce Westphalia (ibid.).

In the television miniseries Nuremberg, Hermann Göring was asked why he was there. “Because we lost the war,” he replied. There is as yet no example of a victor being put on trial by a conquered nation. Immediately after sitting in judgment on Germany, the Soviet Union invaded Eastern Europe.

On Mar 18, Vladimir Putin said his annexation of Crimea was based on the “well-known Kosovo precedent”—created when NATO attacked Serbia in 1999 and split off Kosovo. He cited a 2009 statement by the U.S., and a 2010 statement by the UN International Court supporting the precedent (EWR, op.cit.).

Deployments

Russia smashed the post-Cold War order by seizing Crimea, according to 1913 Intel, a blog about emerging risks. And it positioned a 50,000-troop invasion force on the Ukrainian border, writes Larry Bell (Forbes 4/14/14). But The Moscow Times portrayed “the events in Kiev as an attempt [by the U.S.] to make Ukraine as anti-Russian as possible” (“Russia Must Stop U.S. Expansion in Ukraine,” http://tinyurl.com/nvlq32z).

Crimea is reminiscent of Tibet in 1959, when India was aiding the oppressed Tibetan people, states J.R. Nyquist. India intended to shore up its border and establish outposts in Ladakh. While Indian intelligence reported a tripling of Chinese forces between 1959-1962, Nehru did not augment Indian strength, believing the Chinese would not risk an attack. Indian righteousness did not prevail; the Chinese People’s Liberation Army did.

In Ukraine, the U.S. and NATO are “threatening Russia with an unloaded gun,” forgetting that Russia has the most modern nuclear forces on the planet and Europe is dependent on Russian natural gas (http://www.jrnyquist.com/, 3/24/14).

On May 31, Russians and radical national-socialist European leaders met in Vienna, writes Robert Zubrin. The meeting endorsed Aleksandr Dugin’s call for a “Holy Alliance,” named for the Russian-dominated geopolitical arrangement created after Tsarist troops entered Paris 200 years ago (National Review 6/24/14, http://tinyurl.com/nbcmpmv). The intent, Zubrin states, is “to organize a fascist fifth column in support of the Kremlin’s ambitions to dominate Europe.”

While Ukraine may not trigger WW III, writes “Matt” in 1913 Intel on May 7, a smooth transition from the old order to a new one is unlikely, now that the U.S. is in decline. “In history the probability of war is high when a powerful rival approaches or passes a hegemonic leader.” China, Russia, and Iran are now challenging the U.S., he states, and instability is increased by pursuing nuclear disarmament in a proliferated world without missile defense or a credible deterrent. “The ability to retaliate one time is not enough,” he states.

The Sino-Japanese dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands  may be “the most dangerous potential casus belli in the world today, writes Stephen Harner, noting that the U.S. has a security alliance with Japan (Forbes 2/14/13, http://tinyurl.com/mqsrzp2). As Aristotle wrote, conflicts arise “not over small things but from small things.”

Richard Maybury recently decided to include Japan in the 92 nations of Chaostan, which covers one-third of the earth’s land mass (www.chaostan.com). Japan’s postwar policy of “pacifism and passivism” has been changing over the past 10 years (ibid.).

But Asia in 2014 is different from Europe in August 2014, states Robert D. Kaplan. We have “historical self-awareness,” and the U.S. in a “paramount position” (Gulf News 3/24/14, http://tinyurl.com/pgzeqfw). Really?

Jihad is on the march; terrorist attacks increased 43% worldwide last year, from 6,700 to 9,700, killing 18,000 and injuring 33,000, according to the U.S. State Dept. (Politico 4/30/14, http://tinyurl.com/k5etoca). A terrorist army of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS), which has been disavowed by al Qaeda, is rolling over the Iraqi army, moving like a conventional expeditionary force (WSJ 6/4/14). Saudi Arabia has reportedly deployed 30,000 troops along its border with Iraq, and Jordan also deployed a significant number (Threat Alert 7/5/14). Iran has massed as many as 10 divisions on the Iraqi border.

ISIS collaborates with Syrian rebels trying to overthrow Bashar al-Assad—using U.S.-supplied weapons, states Sen. Rand Paul. Because of delays in the delivery of previously ordered fighter jets from the U.S., the Iraqi air force is buying used fighters from Russia to use against ISIS (Threat Alert 6/26/14).

Surrounded

In August 1939, Poland was surrounded on three sides by German troops—and Soviet troops to the east. Yet well-to-do people were enjoying their vacations. The government and press told them not to worry. Hitler’s armies invaded in September.

There are no troops massed on our porous borders, but one can only guess how many are already dispersed within. Hundreds of European and U.S.-born Islamist extremists are joining the rebels in the Middle East, where they gain battle and bomb-making experience. They are likely to return home and use their expertise against U.S. targets (ibid.).

There are young lieutenants in Jumonville Glens everywhere.  Some estimate the risk of war as 70%, or much greater.

Redrawing Borders         

See maps of the Middle East over the last 3,000 years: http://www.mapsofwar.com/images/EMPIRE17.swf.

Threat Alerts

If you send an air filter from your car to http://www.radtest4u.com/, you will promptly receive a free report on the radioactivity level, and a subscription to Threat Alerts. The latter includes USGOV travel alerts and warnings from the U.S. Department of State.  A worldwide caution was issued Apr 10, and a warning about Honduras on Jun 24.

Go to the website to get a tracking code and instructions.

ISIS Seizes Chemical Weapons Site

In a letter to the UN, Iraq said it would be unable to keep its commitment to destroy its chemical weapons, because the Muthanna complex northwest of Baghdad had been seized by ISIS rebels. It is believed that some 2,500 rockets filled with agents such as sarin and mustard gas were stored there. U.S. officials said the munitions are degraded, and the militants would be unable to make usable weapons from them (BBC News 7/9/14, http://tinyurl.com/qyrdal8).

The site’s production capability was believed to have been destroyed by U.S. air strikes during the 1991 Gulf War (Global Security Newswire 6/20/14, http://tinyurl.com/oryotxy).

Surrounded by China?

Militarily, Communist China has surrounded the U.S., states Tom DeWeese of the American Policy Center. It is building the world’s largest and most powerful navy, which now claims the entire South China Sea. It has an aggressive space program. The Chinese own facilities on both ends of the Panama Canal. Jimmy Carter gave away the Canal and scuttled American bases in the region; now the Chinese have established relationships and bases in several Central and South American countries.

DeWeese also asks whether the U.S. is being effectively colonized by China. China is fast becoming the largest landowner in America, largely through a program of the U.S. Citizen and Immigration Service (USCIS) called Immigrant Investor Regional Centers or EB-5. It’s the fifth program of employment-based immigration, DeWeese explains.

Since 1990, the EB-5 visa program has brought $6.7 billion to the U.S. and created 95,000 jobs. There are at least 480 EB-5 centers in all 50 states. Immigrants get green cards, government grants, tax breaks, and help in getting through the regulatory mine fields that American companies must navigate. While not restricted to Chinese immigrants, in 2012-2013, about 6,900 out of a total 8,567 EB-5 visas went to Chinese nationals.

Chinese are buying dairy farms, cattle ranches, meat packing plants, hotels, film projects, auto plants, charter schools, and luxury condominiums. They also want a piece of American energy sources. The ENN Energy Group, part of the EB-5 program, wants to build a $5 billion solar project in the Dry Lake Solar Energy Zone, where Cliven Bundy’s ranch happens to be located.

“Private” companies in China are mostly a front for the government, states DeWeese. The government has outright control of the companies that earn 43% of all corporate profits, and all the rest are subservient to government and must be very careful not to lose their favored position.

These companies have good connections in the U.S. government as well. ENN is represented by Rory Reid, son of Sen. Harry Reid. Bundy is the only one of 53 ranchers not to be run out of the region—yet. Others involved in EB-5 deals, DeWeese states, include Virginia governor Terry McAuliffe; Anthony Rodham, brother of Hillary Clinton and former son-in-law of Sen. Barbara Boxer; and Alejandro Mayorkas, now Deputy Secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

The Canadian government, DeWeese notes, recently halted its immigrant investor program because a large number of Chinese applications were fraught with fraud and corruption.

Special foreign trade zones (FTZ) give special customs treatment to U.S. companies involved in EB-5. “Good relations” trump national security (APC Newswire 4/24/14, http://tinyurl.com/lmgfh2d).

Is the U.S. not only surrounded by but virtually owned by hostile foreign interests?

Illegals Can Fly without ID

Illegal aliens released by the Border Patrol on their own recognizance are allowed to travel on commercial airlines by simply showing their Notice to Appear, stated Hector Garza, spokesman for the National Border Control Council (NBPC). The paper has no photograph and is easily duplicated or manipulated.

Criminals and terrorists are exploiting our open borders while we reassign the majority of our agents to process families and minors, Garza said. According to a UN report, transnational terrorists from places like Somalia are smuggled into the U.S. through Central America (Breitbart.com 7/11/13, http://tinyurl.com/k52a5sc).

Criminals include members of drug cartels and the MS-13 gang. Six “juveniles” being processed in Nogales, Ariz., admit to committing murder and mayhem; one killed an 8-year-old child, according to an anonymous agent who could lose his job for speaking out. (http://tinyurl.com/ls9tgnc). The processing center is a gang recruitment hub, claims a Border Patrol source (Townhall.com 7/11/14, http://tinyurl.com/kodbdt4).

Associations between Hamas, Hezbollah, and Latin American drug and human trafficking have been reported to Congress since at least 2010, though minimized by the State Dept. (Roger F. Noriega, Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade, Mar 20, 2013, http://tinyurl.com/mn3zlpq).

Civil Defense as Insurance

In 1979, some argued that nuclear war was unthinkable, and civil defense useless and/or provocative. A paper prepared by William Chipman of the Defense Civil Preparedness Agency (DCPA) in 1979 states:

“The history of this planet, and particularly the history of the 20th century, is sufficient to remind us of the possibilities of an irrational attack, a miscalculation, an accidental war, or a war of escalation in which the stakes by each side gradually increase to the point of maximum danger which cannot be either foreseen or deterred…. [Civil defense] is insurance which we could never forgive ourselves for forgoing in the event of catastrophe” (http://tinyurl.com/kqfo6zt).

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