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		<title>Climate Extremism</title>
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		<description><![CDATA[Civil Defense Perspectives January 2013, Vol. 29 No. 2 The Happy New Year news is that Kyoto is dead. It expired at the end of 2012, leaving the world with 58% more greenhouse gases than in 1990, as opposed to &#8230; <a href="http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2013/01/29/climate-extremism/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Civil Defense Perspectives January 2013, Vol. 29 No. 2</strong></p>
<div>
<p>The Happy New Year news is that Kyoto is dead. It expired at the end of 2012, leaving the world with 58% more greenhouse gases than in 1990, as opposed to the 5% reduction sought.</p>
<p>The second phase started Jan 1, 2013. Russia decided to discontinue its participation, and Ukraine and Belarus may follow suit. Canada is officially out. The U.S., China, and India have not committed to reducing emissions (<i>Voice of Russia</i> 12/31/12, quoted in CCNet 1/2/13).<span id="more-56"></span> Because 195 nations at the UN conference at Doha in Qatar agreed to pretend that the “global” agreement lives on (in a nonbinding statement signed by 37 nations and covering 15% of emissions), a Kyoto “extension” exists as a zombie (<i>Toronto Sun </i>1/1/13).</p>
<p><i>Nature</i> is distressed: “The world can go back to emitting greenhouse gases with abandon,” now that it is “without any international climate regulation.” The world is “awash in carbon”—the fathers of the Kyoto Protocol severely underestimated the amount of hydrocarbons buried in the ground. And “making energy more expensive is a political liability everywhere,” stated Roger Pielke (<i>Nature</i> 11/29/12).</p>
<p><strong>From Warming to Extreme Weather</strong></p>
<p>Climate alarmists keep changing their rhetoric from global cooling to global warming to climate change to climate disruption and now to “extreme weather.”   It is still assumed that “we” could “contain” the global temperature rise to within 2 °C of preindustrial temperatures by limiting emissions (ibid.). But in case people aren’t sufficiently afraid of warmth, there’s worse.</p>
<p>“When the weather gets weird, as happens a lot these days, one question inevitably arises from reporters, politicians and the general public alike: is this global warming?” writes Quirin Schiermeier (<i>Nature</i> 9/8/11). Previously, climate researchers have shied away from attributing an episode of bad weather to climate change. This reluctance has started to fade. “My thinking has evolved,” states Gavin Schmidt, climate modeler at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies.</p>
<p>A coalition called ACE—Attribution of Climate Events—uses statistical tools with climate models to carry out “fractional attribution” of extreme events: how much was each influenced by human-caused emissions, and how much by natural causes. Use of people’s experience with vivid events helps to increase their willingness to support measures to reduce emissions (ibid.).</p>
<p>“Sandy proves climate change is a national challenge,” writes <i>Washington Post </i>columnist Eugene Robinson. We had two once-in-a-century storms within a decade. Q.E.D.: “The traditional dodge—that no one weather event can definitively be attributed to global warming—doesn’t work any more.” After all, it “quacks like a duck” and is “floating through your living room.”</p>
<p>Warmists are going “full tabloid climatology,” reports Marc Morano. “The ‘new normal’ for climate activists is&#8230;exploiting any weather event to promote their religious like cause.” A storm like Sandy is shamelessly used to gin up fear” (<a href="http://climatedepot.com">climatedepot.com</a>).</p>
<p><strong>Hurricane Drought</strong></p>
<p>In fact, the frequency of major hurricanes is now about half what it was 60 years ago, and the most intense hurricane ever to hit the U.S. occurred in 1935 (<b>http://tinyurl.com/8vulazn</b>). Sandy barely qualified as a Category 1 storm when it made landfall. The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane was a Category 3 when it laid waste to lower Manhattan, and the 1938 New England hurricane was a Category 3 when it battered Long Island (<i>WSJ</i> 11/2/12, <a href="http://tinyurl.com/bfbte5u"><b>http://tinyurl.com/bfbte5u</b></a>).</p>
<p>While Sandy set a record for the lowest central pressure of any storm north of North Carolina, it is not a harbinger of a “new normal,” writes Roger Pielke. “This historic storm should remind us that planet Earth is a dangerous place, where extreme events are commonplace” (<i>WSJ</i> 11/1/12).</p>
<p><strong>“Frankenstorms” and Medieval Blame Games</strong></p>
<p>Sandy was branded a “Frankenstorm” by none other than the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), suggesting that a storm can somehow become an unnatural, sentient monster, with something to tell us: “A wounded earth is speaking—are you listening?” The monster storm is an “assault from the amped-up forces of the not-so-natural world”—our unnatural behavior, our carbon-reliant lifestyles. The radical website Climate and Capitalism writes, “How the 1% created a monster” (<i>Daily Telegraph</i> 10/30/12, <a href="http://tinyurl.com/al2ye6t"><b>http://tinyurl.com/al2ye6t</b></a>).</p>
<p>For the warmist camp,  filled with gloom and doom over the news of stable temperatures for 16 years, the monster was a mighty blast of good news—even a previously neglected election issue. It didn’t matter that the IPCC itself said it had little science to back claims of man-made extreme weather: the media machine was on it. “Frankenscience” was unleashed (<i>Financial Post</i> 10/30/12, <a href="http://tinyurl.com/arjz53y"><b>http://tinyurl.com/arjz53y</b></a>).</p>
<p><strong>Scientists Urged to Be Extreme</strong></p>
<p>While the scientific case for manmade climate disaster grows weaker every day, writes David Rothbard of the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT), “no one should ever underestimate the desperation, audacity, and political brilliance of those who have staked their careers, their reputations, salaries and pensions on the notion that our energy use and quest for improved living standards for all humanity have somehow usurped the natural forces that have driven climate changes from time immemorial” (<b>http://tinyurl.com/atq7xvc</b>).</p>
<p>Financier Jeremy Grantham, who boasts of having warned of investment bubbles in Japan in 1989 and the U.S. in 2000 and 2007, now warns of an impending “resource crisis exacerbated by global warming.” We’re rapidly approaching a “cliff.”</p>
<p>Grantham says we must drastically reduce the use of fertilizer, lest we starve, as we’re about to run out of potash. (The <i>WSJ </i>of Jan 3 shows mountains of it piling up for lack of demand.) He also claims that most of James Hansen’s predictions have proved conservative. He speaks admiringly of Hansen’s recent arrest in Washington, D.C., while protesting a Canadian pipeline.</p>
<p>“For climate change, uniquely, understatement is even riskier [than overstatement] and therefore, arguably, unethical.” Scientists need to sound a more desperate note on global warming: “Be brave. Be arrested.” It is the “crisis of our species’ existence,” he asserts (<i>Nature</i> 11/15/12).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
</div>
<p><strong>Global Warming Stopped 16 Years Ago</strong><b>                </b></p>
<p>This was announced by the <i>Mail</i> last October based on data on land surface-air temperature released by the Hadley Centre. “Too short a period to draw conclusions,” said Phil Jones of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had predicted an increase of at least 3°C over that period (<i>The Week That Was </i>10/20/12).</p>
<p>Looking at a much longer period, on the basis of 91 proxies, the peak of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) in the latter part of the 10th century was equal to or greater than mid-20th century warming, and the summers of the Roman Period in the first century A.D. were warmer still. Data from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project show another, higher peak in the Late Bronze Age (13th-11th century B.C.). Atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> hovered between 275-285 ppm over this period until its recent 40% increase  (from CCNet 10/18/12, <b>http://tinyurl.com/bghxxkj</b>). More than 700 scientists in 40 countries have presented peer-reviewed evidence that the MWP was real and warmer than the present.</p>
<p>To create the infamous Hockey Stick, James Hansen and Michael Mann erased the MWP and the Little Ice Age, cooled the 1930s, and warmed more recent years. For a detailed discussion and a transcript of the BBC debate between Mann and Marc Morano, see climatedepot.com, <b>http://tinyurl.com/bpp8mx2</b>.</p>
<p>Based on information leaked about the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report, we now have observational data, not unproven models, about the sensitivity of temperature to CO<sub>2</sub> concentration. A further rise of no more than 1.6 °C by 2100 is likely from an IPCC scenario assuming a doubling of CO<sub>2.</sub> (<i>WSJ</i> 12/19/12).</p>
<p><b> </b></p>
<p><strong>Skeptic Calendar a “KochMachine” Conspiracy </strong></p>
<p>When Anthony Watts sent Michael Mann and three others a free 2013 Skeptic Calendar, Mann sent a Tweet “Where did #AnthonyWatts (#WUWT) get funds for widely distributed #climatechange#denier calendar?&#8230;#KochMachine.” Watts used his credit card (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/d4ltea8"><b>http://tinyurl.com/d4ltea8</b></a>).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Teachers Feeling Heat</strong></p>
<p>Disagreements about climate change are “seeping” into K-12 education. Teachers have to “learn how to defend themselves against parents or administrators wearing ‘ideological blinders,’” stated Joshua Rosenau of the National Center for Science Education. Staging debates over science in schools or Congress is “madness,” he believes. “Science is not about providing balance to every viewpoint that’s out there.” It might “sow confusion.”</p>
<p>Science teachers in Wisconsin refused to participate in a debate organized by “Tea Party activists” pitting them against “climate change deniers David Legates and Willie Soon” in front of students from 200 high schools. One of the teachers, Andrew Milbauer, corresponded on a blog for a time until someone wrote that he was “passing on to our youth this monstrous hoax as gospel truth.” He thinks there is “lynch-mob hate against any teacher trying to teach climate change.”</p>
<p>Climate change is now rivaling evolution as a topic triggering outside concerns. The problem is said to be acute in Louisiana, because of a 2008 law that allows teachers and students to challenge “controversial” ideas in the classroom, including climate change and evolution, “without fear of reprisal” (<i>Science</i> 8/5/11).</p>
<p>What might happen if we allowed freedom of thought?!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>About the 98%</strong></p>
<p>In their hatchet job on skeptics, the American Geophysical Union, the National Academy of Sciences, and <i>Frontline </i>state that “97–98% of climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of Anthropogenic Climate Change.” That percentage is 75 of 77 of alleged experts, culled from 10,257 Earth scientists invited to participate in a survey, who agreed that mean global temperatures have risen since the pre-1800s [the end of the Little Ice Age] and that “human activity is a significant contributing factor in  changing mean global temperatures.” The chosen 75 had published papers in journals that routinely reject the work of skeptics. The poll was published in a University of Illinois master’s thesis (<i>The Energy Advocate</i>, November 2012).</p>
<p><strong>Doha Wealth Redistribution Process Goes On </strong></p>
<p>While crying over the “bitter failure” to get a binding treaty, the more than 7,000 climate alarmists representing nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) at the Doha conference will still get billions of taxpayer dollars annually, and more all-expense-paid trips to 5-star resorts. A promise was made that, starting in 2020, at least $100 billion per year would flow from “rich” countries to “poor” countries to help them cope with climate change and extreme weather (Rothbard, op. cit.).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Coal Is the Villain</strong></p>
<p>Since the mid-1990s, the amount of primary energy supplied by coal has risen from 25% to almost 30%. There is no prospect of running out. At the current rate of consumption, supplies will last for at least a century. India and China together add three coal-fired generating stations per week. Many European countries, including Germany, are switching from gas and nuclear to coal (<i>Nature</i> 11/29/12).</p>
<p>Believing James Hansen’s characterization of coal plants as “factories of death,” Obama and the U.S. EPA’s Lisa Jackson are trying to kill the U.S. coal-fired utility industry. Jackson’s team proposes to designate coal ash as hazardous waste, at a cost of $50 billion, though 40% of it is recycled into bricks, drywall, asphalt, and cement. EPA headquarters was built with cement containing coal ash. EPA regulations could mean the loss of 2.5 million jobs, and $1,200 annually from household income. Losses to U.S. GDP could peak at $500 billion per year in 2030 (Steve Goreham, <i>Wash Times </i>1/2/13, <a href="http://tinyurl.com/ap4d7cc"><b>http://tinyurl.com/ap4d7cc</b></a>).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Bottom-Up v. Top-Down Regulation</strong></p>
<p>The Kyoto approach of emissions caps having failed, Dieter Helm suggests shifting the focus to consumption, through taxing the “carbon” embedded in the goods and services each person consumes [presumably the CO<sub>2  </sub>emitted throughout the process of manufacturing]. “Global warming takes no account of national boundaries,” he writes. If a customer buys a car, it matters little whether the steel was made in China or the U.S. The UK, for example, may have shown a 15% drop in carbon production from 1990 to 2005, but carbon consumption went up by 19% when imports are taken into account. This taxation approach will help avoid “free riding” and the immediate problem of coal burning. We need bottom-up action, not just more talk, he believes (<i>Nature </i>11/29/12).</p>
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		<title>EPA v. Human Health</title>
		<link>http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2013/01/29/epa-v-human-health/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Jan 2013 06:29:44 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Civil Defense Perspectives November 2012, Vol. 29 No. 1 The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is claiming authority to regulate virtually anything it chooses based on the linear no-threshold (LNT) theory, not just of radiation carcinogenesis, but of everything. If economist &#8230; <a href="http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2013/01/29/epa-v-human-health/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Civil Defense Perspectives November 2012, Vol. 29 No. 1<br />
</strong></p>
<div>
<p>The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is claiming authority to regulate virtually anything it chooses based on the linear no-threshold (LNT) theory, not just of radiation carcinogenesis, but of everything. If economist Frédéric Bastiat tried to construct a reductio ad absurdam on pollutants, like the one in <i>The Candlemakers’ Petition </i>to ban sunlight, he would find that what he proposed as absurd is taken seriously by the EPA. <span id="more-51"></span></p>
<p>There is no safe concentration of particulate matter less than 2.5 μ in diameter (PM 2.5 ), as is found in dust storms or diesel exhaust, according to EPA testimony to Congress. And unlike radiation carcinogenesis, with a latent period as long as 30 years, dust can be lethal instantly (<a href="http://www.jpands.org/vol17no4/dunn.pdf"><i>J Amer Phys Surg</i>, winter 2012</a>).</p>
<p>So far, the EPA has not demanded use of an N-95 mask when using a vacuum cleaner or duster, or that all homes meet industrial clean-room standards. This is a striking inconsistency, since indoor PM2.5 levels are much higher than outdoors, and EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson told Bill Maher that in many areas of the country, “the best advice is don’t go outside. Don’t breathe the air. It might kill you” (Kathleen Harnett White, <i>EPA’s Pretense of Science: Regulating Phantom Risks</i>, Texas Public Policy Foundation, May 2012, <a href="http://tinyurl.com/buqwuzg"><b>http://tinyurl.com/buqwuzg</b></a>).</p>
<p><strong>“Saving” $2 Trillion and 220,000 Lives in 2020</strong><b> </b></p>
<p>Controlling “deadly” dust under Clean Air Act (CAA) rules reducing PM2.5 levels would be as beneficial as curing cancer, the EPA argues. Its evidence consists of highly selected ecologic studies in some cities, where virtually any nonaccidental death involving a cardiopulmonary condition is attributed to air quality. A “statistical life” is constructed by aggregating small risk reductions over many individuals, and the value of one statistical life is monetized to be $8.9 million, even if the actual effect is at most prolonging the life of an 80-year-old by a few months. Risk is extrapolated to PM2.5 levels far below those that are actually measured. The EPA assumes causation based on correlation, disregarding confounding variables and studies giving contradictory results. Most peer reviewers have a conflict of interest (ibid.).</p>
<p>The EPA’s 1997 standard for PM2.5, the most stringent in its history, is based primarily on two observational epidemiologic studies, the 1993 Harvard Six Cities Study and the 1995 American Cancer Society study. Associations were so weak that the EPA’s own scientific advisory committee refused to approve the standard. As both the agency and the authors refuse to release the data, independent review is impossible.</p>
<p>For observational studies, a relative risk (RR) below 2.0 is generally considered insignificant. Cigarette smoking increases the risk of lung cancer by 900%, an RR of 10.0. For air pollution, the RR of premature death was 1.17 in the 1995 study, and was only 1.08 in a more recent study (Jerome Arnett, Heartland Policy Brief, March 2012, <a href="http://tinyurl.com/bode7ak"><b>http://tinyurl.com/bode7ak</b></a>).</p>
<p><strong>“Co-benefits” of PM2.5 Reduction</strong></p>
<p>The purported benefits of many new EPA “train wreck” rules derive almost exclusively from coincidental reductions in PM2.5—including 99.996% of the benefit claimed from new mercury rules (White, op. cit.).</p>
<p><strong>Human Experimentation</strong></p>
<p>Unless EPA is lying to Congress concerning its belief in the lethal effects of PM2.5, it is deliberately exposing human research subjects to agents it thinks may kill them. The purpose of the experiments, in which people inhale diesel exhaust in an apparatus resembling a gas chamber, is to cause harm in an effort to justify a crushing regulatory regime. The experiments are illegal and unethical, write Steve Milloy and John Dale Dunn, for lack of consent and other reasons (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/bqvtldw"><b>http://tinyurl.com/bqvtldw</b></a>).</p>
<p>Litigation brought by the American Tradition Institute is pending (see <a href="http://www.JunkScience.com"><b>www.JunkScience.com</b></a>).</p>
<p><strong>Lisa Jackson, a.k.a. Richard Windsor, Steps Down</strong></p>
<p>An editorial in <i>Investor’s Business Daily</i> asks whether the Obama EPA is running its own black-ops program (<b>http://tinyurl.com/bcv46md</b>). Obama’s promises of “transparency” notwithstanding, the EPA is apparently using aliases in an effort to keep emails secret. “Richard Windsor,” from the name of her dog, is one of the aliases used by Jackson.</p>
<p>Federal law prohibits the government from using private emails for official communications unless they are appropriately stored and can be tracked. The House Science Committee is investigating the possibility that the agency has conducted business it doesn’t want the public to see. The EPA refused to cooperate with Freedom of Information Act requests from the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI)) for access to internal emails related to a carbon tax the Administration plans to propose, or perhaps to its war on coal. Fred Smith of CEI reports that the Department of Justice has ordered the release of 12,000 emails. Days later, Jackson announced her resignation (<i>IBD</i> 12/17/12).</p>
<p>Jackson is listed by the British journal <i>Nature</i> as part of Obama’s “science dream team.” It cites approvingly her work on “issues finding that greenhouse-gas emissions threaten public health” and on regulations that make coal-fired power plants less competitive. In a feature article on “Political Science,” it writes that “the need to win votes can trump scientific evidence on issues such as climate change and public health.” While disappointed at Obama’s failure to achieve a “climate bill,” it generally approves his “consistent support for science” (<i>Nature</i> 9/27/12).</p>
<p><strong>Costs, Benefits, and Human Health</strong></p>
<p>When agency “science” is secretive, conflicted, and nonaccountable, zero confidence can be placed in its claimed benefits—especially when it has a history of absurd claims. The EPA is not deterred from issuing costly regulations even when it admits that it does not anticipate <i>any</i> notable emissions changes and thus can’t calculate <i>any</i> monetized benefits, as from standards for power plants (<b>http://tinyurl.com/annykz4</b>). Yet compliance costs the U.S. economy $353 billion per year, according to CEI (<b>http://tinyurl.com/aefrgop</b>). Economic harm means poverty and unemployment, which affects health. A plot of age-adjusted death rate against real GDP per capita shows a correlation coefficient of 0.954 (White, op.cit.). An honest accounting would show costs and lives lost from counterproductive regulations.</p>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>LNT: the New Homeopathy   </strong></p>
<p>The practice of homeopathy is based on the principle that therapeutic effects can be obtained at infinitesimally low doses. Virtually the entire biomedical community dismisses this idea with disdain. Yet, notes Edward Calabrese, the cancer risk assessment practices of EPA, “which are highly dependent on linear dose response modeling, ironically have a striking resemblance to high dilution homeopathy.” EPA routinely makes binding regulations “based on a similar type of low-dose extremism” (<i>Environ Toxicol Chem </i>2012;31:2723).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Flashback: Dangers of Government Funding</strong></p>
<p>Less well known than his warning about the “military-industrial complex” is President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s warning about the corrupting influence of government funding of science. In his 1961 Farewell Address, he said:</p>
<p>The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present—and is gravely to be regarded. Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.</p>
<p><strong>Biofuels: EPA Denies Waiver; Beware of E-15  </strong></p>
<p>The worst drought in 50 years, combined with the federal renewable fuel standard (RFS), has pushed corn prices to record highs, harming poultry, beef, pork, and dairy producers. Governors of seven states asked for a waiver of the RFS on grounds of severe economic harm, which Lisa Jackson denied.</p>
<p>The EPA requires petitioners to meet an impossible burden of proof. In contrast, to impose new requirements the EPA need show only a small contribution to an alleged harm and a minute regulatory contribution to a hoped-for solution.</p>
<p>This year, 40% of the nation’s corn crop was used to make ethanol for motor fuel. Gasoline must now contain 10% ethanol, and the EPA wants to increase that to 15% (<b>http://tinyurl.com/btqblhq</b>). E-15 is now available in a few states, but though the EPA approved it and recommends it, 10 auto companies warn that <b><i>your warranty will be voided if you use it in any model older than 2012 </i></b>because of its corrosive effects. These include BMW, Ford, Chrysler, Honda, Nissan, Toyota, VW, and Mercedes Benz (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/anldjnm"><b>http://tinyurl.com/anldjnm</b></a>).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>A New Verb: To “Pebble Beach” </strong></p>
<p>This method, used by Lisa Jackson’s EPA to kill an Alaska mining project, involves rewriting the Clean Water Act (CWA).</p>
<p>Pebble Beach has the potential to be among the world’s largest suppliers of gold and copper. Under the CWA, the Army Corps of Engineers has the primary authority to issue permits for wetlands, which the EPA can later revoke. It has used this power to revoke a permit in West Virginia 4 years after it was issued, leading federal district court judge Amy Berman Jackson to state that the EPA’s view that it could unilaterally revoke or modify a Corps permit at any time was “a stunning power for an agency to arrogate to itself when there is absolutely no mention of it in the statute.” But it is not enough for the EPA. In this case, the EPA invented its own hypothetical mine, with its own, antiquated engineering standards, and found that this nonexistent mine would harm the watershed. The EPA claims broad authority for its Administrator to prohibit a project, “whenever necessary,” before a proposal is even submitted (<i>TWTW</i> 10/6/12, <a href="http://www.sepp.org"><b>www.sepp.org</b></a>).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>The EPA Multiplier </strong></p>
<p>The “number of the week” of 1,667 is the factor by which the EPA multiplies the concentration of benzene found by the U.S. Geological Service in wells near Pavillion, Wyoming, that the EPA declared to be contaminated by hydraulic fracturing. These are shallow wells in claystone and sandstone, not the typical deep wells in dense shale (<i>TWTW </i>10/6/12).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Diagnostic Imaging, Evacuation, and LNT</strong></p>
<p>U.S. medicine is still wedded to the LNT for calculating hypothetical hazards from medical imaging. Three annual CT lung scans, with about 8 mSv total irradiation, are calculated to risk an additional lung cancer in 1 of 2,500 patients 10 to 20 years later. This is less than the benefit of preventing one death from lung cancer owing to early detection by screening 310 high-risk individuals. However, “potential risks may vastly outweigh benefits in nonsmokers or those aged 42 years or younger” (<i>JAMA </i>6/13/12). In an accompanying editorial, authors warn that many patients are exposed to “high” (20-50 mSv) or “very high” (&gt;50 mSv) of radiation in a given year from medical imaging. They note that these data are not linked to clinical outcomes. There is no calculation of how many patients may be deprived of benefits from advanced imaging out of fear of hypothetical future cancer (also see <a href="http://www.ddponline.org/2011/07/01/enhanced-defense/"><i>DDP Newsletter</i>, July 2011</a>).</p>
<p>While some panic-mongering continues over Fukushima, UNSCEAR has concluded that there were no radiation-related deaths. Acute effects become clear only at levels &gt; 1,000 mSv (100 rem), and it is not possible to attribute health effects to long-term exposures below average background levels of 2–20 mSv/y (<i>World Nuclear News </i>12/10/12). U.S. Homeland Security is expected to revise clean-up standards after a “dirty bomb” to keep exposure between 100 mrem (1 mSv) and 2,000 mrem (20 mSv) per year. This is far from a repudiation of the LNT, as 20 mSv/y for 30 years is still estimated to cause 1 in 23 people to develop a radiation-induced cancer, but it is 43,000 times less stringent than Superfund’s ideal.  Activists such as Daniel Hirsch, nuclear policy lecturer at the University of California at Santa Cruz, call the relaxed standard “ethically indefensible” (Global Security Newswire 11/26/12, <a href="http://tinyurl.com/autvf2e"><b>http://tinyurl.com/autvf2e</b></a>).</p>
<p>Meanwhile, on the Greek island of Ikaria, the “island where people forget to die,” the maximum dose rate is 35  mSv/y. Four times as many men reach the age of 90 there compared with the U.S. The <i>NY Times </i>attributes this to diet or perhaps herbal tea (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/8lpvp7w"><b>http://tinyurl.com/8lpvp7w</b></a>).</p>
<p>The harm caused by LNT-induced radiation phobia, especially at Chernobyl and Fukushima, is the subject of a special issue of <i>Dose-Response </i>2012;10(4). In this issue, Fornalski and Dobrzyński calculate from an ecologic study in Poland that the relative risk of cancer death decreased by 1.17%/mSv/y (P=0.02), when all types of cancer are included. Under the LNT, of course, RR can only increase with increased exposure (<a href="http://www.dose-response.com"><b>www.dose-response.com</b></a>).</p>
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		<title>The Aftermath of Fukushima</title>
		<link>http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2012/09/28/the-aftermath-of-fukushima/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Sep 2012 07:25:42 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Civil Defense Perspectives September 2012, Vol. 28 No. 6 After Fukushima, people are asking questions such as: Should Japan, and the world, totally give up on nuclear energy(Nature 6/7/12)? Casualties from radiation, from the worst nuclear accident in history, are &#8230; <a href="http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2012/09/28/the-aftermath-of-fukushima/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>Civil Defense Perspectives September 2012, Vol. 28 No. 6</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">After Fukushima, people are asking questions such as: Should Japan, and the world, totally give up on nuclear energy(<em>Nature</em> 6/7/12)? Casualties from radiation, from the worst nuclear accident in history, are still zero. But what about the projected later cancers?  What if an accident contaminates the environment forever? Should people be allowed to return home?</p>
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<p>A rational discussion of evacuation policy must begin with the question: “What is the dose?” The follow-up: If we evacuate Fukushima, should Denver be evacuated? How about Finland? <span id="more-44"></span></p>
<p><strong>The Harm of Over-reaction </strong></p>
<p>The 172,000 people living within a 30-km radius of the Fukushima Daiichi plant have been forced or advised to leave. More than two-thirds of the world’s 211 nuclear power plants have more people than that living with 30 km (<em>Nature </em>4/28/11).</p>
<p>Because of shutting down most of its nuclear reactors, Japan’s imports of fuel increased by $55 billion in 2011. This, coupled with slowdowns in manufacturing from power shortages, reversed  Japan’s trade balance from 20 years of trade surpluses to an $18 billion deficit (W. Tucker, <em>WSJ</em> 3/6/12).</p>
<p>Uprooting people from their homes, work, and usual support systems, and forcing them into crowded refugee centers, causes casualties, especially among the elderly. It may permanently destroy their livelihood from farm or business. After Chernobyl, the most widespread and devastating effects were psychological, including suicide and psychosis, writes Z. Jaworowski (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/95rdafa"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/95rdafa</strong></a>). He attributes this to excessive remedial measures and global radiophobic propaganda.</p>
<p><strong>Consistent, Meaningful Doses</strong></p>
<p>The public is often frightened by doses given in tiny units, or confused by new international units (sieverts, grays) versus older units (rems, rads). For example, some workers “suffered” exposures of 100,000 μSv [100 mSv, 10 rad] after wading in radioactive water (<em>WSJ </em>6/14/11).</p>
<p>Another scary number is the 36,000 terabequerels (~1 million curies [Ci]) of radioactivity that the plants “spewed”—which amounted to 11 kg of radioactive material out of the 60,000 kg of fuel per unit (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/9mvb5du"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/9mvb5du</strong></a>). Alarmists warned that the reactors <em>contained</em> about 134 million Ci of Cs-137 or 85 times as much as was <em>released</em> at Chernobyl. In contrast, U.S. and Russian weapons complexes have released some 1.6 billion Ci, compared with an inventory of ~140 billion Ci in the oceans.</p>
<p>Exposures from a contaminated environment, suggest Buongiorno et al., should be compared with average total natural background rates (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/c6whqb8"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/c6whqb8</strong></a>). This accounts for the low dose-rate and is thus more scientifically valid than comparisons with medical exposures delivered over a few seconds. Comparison with the range of natural levels is also much more informative than with government permissible limits, which may be thousands of times too low.</p>
<p>The world average dose-rate for natural background is 0.27 μSv/hr (times 8766 hr/y gives 2.4 mSv/y). The excess dose received in Denver is 3 mSv/y—what Richard Muller calls the “Denver dose.” The current International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) evacuation standard of 1 mSv/y would appear to require the immediate evacuation of Denver, Muller notes (<em>WSJ</em> 8/18-19/12),  among many other places.</p>
<p>Some approximate lifetime (70-y) exposures in mSv:</p>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="201">United States (avg)</td>
<td valign="top" width="93">
<p align="center">180</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="201">Sweden*</td>
<td valign="top" width="93">
<p align="center">410</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="201">Finland*</td>
<td valign="top" width="93">
<p align="center">510</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="201">Chernobyl (“high” contamination)*</td>
<td valign="top" width="93">
<p align="center">480</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="201">Kerala, India (coastal)+</td>
<td valign="top" width="93">
<p align="center">1,600-14,000</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="201">Ramsar, Iran (high background area)‡</td>
<td valign="top" width="93">
<p align="center">18,200</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>*Jaworowski, op. cit.; +Luckey <strong>http://tinyurl.com/9jrt52u;</strong></p>
<p>‡<em>Health Physics </em>2002;82:87-93.</p>
<p>These estimates are approximate. Different values are obtained depending on the location of the measurement, and values in mSv may be different from mGy because of alpha emitters. Natural levels of 1,400 mSv/y and even higher have been found.</p>
<p><strong>Establishing a Rational Evacuation Standard</strong></p>
<p>At the 30th annual meeting of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness, Jerry Cuttler discussed radiation protection standards. Between 1920 and 1955, it was established that 2 mSv/day, or 1/100<sup>th</sup> of an erythema dose of 600 Roentgens/30 days, was a safe dose limit. In 1924, the American Roentgen Ray Society set 600 mSv/yr as a dose that could be tolerated indefinitely. This is equivalent to high natural background levels—and to the dose in the red area around Fukushima. <em>No one </em>has been identifiably injured while working within this dose limit (Cuttler and Pollycove, <a href="http://tinyurl.com/747x2e6"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/747x2e6</strong></a>).</p>
<p>How then does one come up with the cumulative, collective “cancer dose” of 2,500 rem (25,000 mSv) cited by Muller? If you take the dose in rems within a certain area in a given time period, multiply by the number of persons exposed, and divide by 2,500, you get the number of predicted excess cancers. It doesn’t matter how many people share the dose, and thus how little each person gets. Each hit has the same theoretical probability of producing a cancer, by some mechanism yet to be described.</p>
<p>Not only does this contradict all experience; it is biologically absurd. DNA is not a stable molecule that remains safe unless assaulted by a gamma ray. Every cell experiences some 200,000 spontaneous DNA-damaging events per day, as from reactive oxygen species, compared with less than 0.03 events per cell  per day from 1 mSv radiation spread over a year. Most damage is repaired, and low-dose radiation appears to stimulate the process in a nonspecific way, protecting the cell from other harms.</p>
<p>This effect, called “hormesis,” appears to have bestowed “an effective immunity to cancer” upon residents of apartments in Taiwan inadvertently built with Co-60 contaminated steel, writes Tucker, citing a 2004 article (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/9jwnnc3"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/9jwnnc3</strong></a>).</p>
<p>If we were, however, to admit that low-dose radiation is not only safe but might cure cancer and prevent birth defects, what would happen to compensation payments to people irradiated at Hiroshima or Chernobyl, or the reputation of health physicists?</p>
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<p><strong>Wildfires—Horrific and Unnecessary</strong></p>
<p>By July 4, Colorado wildfires had devoured 265 sq mi, five times the size of Washington, D.C. More than 32,000 people had to be evacuated. Many bad policies contribute to the damage, writes Paul Driessen (<strong><a href="http://tinyurl.com/9kqjapc">http://tinyurl.com/9kqjapc</a>)</strong>, including environmentalists’ obstruction of selective cutting, and jurisdictional disputes over firefighting. Still, once the fire started, it could have been stopped, just as a 300-acre fire had been quickly extinguished near Albuquerque 2 days before the Waldo Canyon fire erupted. Nine single-engine plane loads, about 7,200 gallons of a revolutionary fire suppressant called FireIce were needed. Colorado did not contact the manufacturer, GelTech, to ask for assistance. The product can be used to protect homes in an area threatened by wildfire.</p>
<p><strong>Searching for Chernobyl Victims</strong></p>
<p>The number of victims of the Chernobyl accident has been overestimated by about 800,000 writes M.I. Balonov (<em>J Radiation Protection</em> 5/8/12, <strong>doi:10.1088/0952-4746/32/2/181</strong>). Repeating the same mistakes with respect to Fukushima could cause public panic and erroneous decisions.</p>
<p>In contrast to most other nations, all-cause mortality in Russia (as from alcohol abuse) peaked in 1994 and again in 2001, making it impossible for geographic studies to segregate any Chernobyl effect. Massive population screening has uncovered many cancers that would have otherwise been undetected. The tool needed to overcome the screening effect—dose-effect within a cohort—has been rejected.</p>
<p>Most telling is the fact that mortality in the most highly exposed people, the liquidators, is <em>lower</em> than background.</p>
<p>Zbigniew Jaworowski writes that “in comparison with general population of Russia, a 15% to 30% deficit in solid cancer mortality was found among Russian emergency workers, and a 5% deficit of solid cancer incidence among the population of most contaminated areas (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/3qp9tkb"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/3qp9tkb</strong></a>).</p>
<p>One of the invaluable lessons from Chernobyl, he states, is the absurdity of the linear no-threshold hypothesis. “Using collective dose as an indicator of possible health effects is nonsense.” Using it led to costs of $100 billion in Western Europe, and much more in post-Soviet countries, causing “unspoken sufferings and the pauperization of millions of people.”</p>
<p>Denver, and other areas of high background radiation, also tend to have a lower than expected cancer incidence.</p>
<p><strong>Facts on Chernobyl</strong></p>
<p>Total radionuclide emissions from the burning reactor were 200 times less than from all 543 nuclear warheads exploded in the atmosphere since 1945. The highest estimated dose to the average person was 0.113 mSv in 1963.</p>
<p>The death rate from the Chernobyl reactor, 0.86/GWe-year, is 9 times lower than from liquefied natural gas.</p>
<p>The average dose in the evacuation area was about 1.6 mSv during the first year; the projected excess lifetime dose is 6, or 28 times lower than the natural lifetime dose.</p>
<p>The incidence of occult thyroid cancer in children in the most contaminated region was 90 times less than the 2.4% rate observed for children in Finland.</p>
<p><strong>Nuclear Energy Worldwide</strong></p>
<p>Even though the total release of radioactive material from Fukushima was only one-sixth that at Chernobyl, the effect on nuclear power generation worldwide may be greater.</p>
<p>“Enthusiasm for a global nuclear revival has stalled—and not before time,” writes Colin Macilwain (<em>Nature</em> 3/31/11). He considers the risk of nuclear power to be “unique and almost existential.” He thinks the real risk of nuclear power is that “human intervention has to be maintained,” no matter what. He thinks that pressurized water reactors are the only viable design for new reactor construction.</p>
<p>The Japanese government has announced its intention to phase out all nuclear reactors by 2040. Greenpeace Japan calls for enacting this into law to avoid giving mere “lip service” to appease the public before elections (<em>Ariz Daily Star </em>9/15/12).</p>
<p>France, a leader in nuclear energy, speaks of a “before and after Fukushima,” and plans to spend $16 billion on an additional layer of defense, hardened bunkers with protected control rooms and reservoirs of coolant (<em>Nature </em>2/12/12). A nascent antinuclear movement has finally taken hold in France, which generates 75% of its electricity from nuclear and is thus half as dependent on Russian natural gas as the rest of Europe. It is unlikely to succeed in closing down any reactors, writes William Tucker, and if it did, Italy, which refuses to use nuclear and imports 80% of its electricity, would probably collapse (<em>American Spectator</em>, March 2012).</p>
<p>In a point/counterpoint on a U.S. nuclear future, J. Doyne Farmer and Arjun Makhijani assert that building more power plants would facilitate nuclear proliferation. They claim that each 1,000-megawatt reactor generates about 30 nuclear-bombs’ worth  of plutonium each year (<em>Nature </em>9/23/10). As discussed in 1986, this was a feature of Chernobyl-style reactors, but not Western pressurized water reactors (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/8h9dmyj"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/8h9dmyj</strong></a>).</p>
<p>China’s construction of 27 reactors is on time and on budget.  The first Westinghouse AP1000 reactors, which use “passive” convection currents and do not need electric pumps for cooling, are scheduled to go on line in 2013. Recycling with the use of the Integral Fast Breeder Reactor, which burns any kind of nuclear fuel and eliminates nuclear “waste,” could provide China with 3,000 years of cheap electricity (Tucker, op. cit.).</p>
<p>Russia is prepared to lead a new nuclear renaissance. It has sold reactors to India, Vietnam, and Iran, and hopes to sell as many as 30 abroad in the next decade. It has offered to accept any country’s waste for reprocessing (ibid. and <em>WSJ </em>4/23/11).</p>
<p><strong>Advances in Nuclear Power Plants</strong></p>
<p>While preoccupied with how many picocuries of tritium were leaking out of Vermont Yankee, America relinquished its lead in nuclear power generation to other nations, writes William Tucker (<em>American Spectator</em>, March 2011). Small modular reactors (SMRs) could allow America to come back. They can be buried, eliminating the possibility that an accident could have widespread consequences. SMRs could decentralize power production, and also provide power to remote areas without long transmission lines.  The biggest impediment to safer reactors is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. “The NRC last issued a license for a nuclear reactor in 1976. It is not known whether it will ever issue one again.” While the AP1000 is about to go online in China, the NRC is still trying to figure out how to protect it from airplanes.  A redundant concrete wall might fall in an earthquake.</p>
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		<title>Preparing for Economic Disaster</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Sep 2012 07:16:25 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Civil Defense Perspectives July 2012, Vol. 28 No. 5 An obscure 1984 newsletter than I unearthed while cleaning out a filing cabinet predicted fiscal armageddon, followed by a world government, because of a Third World debt crisis. It was said &#8230; <a href="http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2012/09/28/preparing-for-economic-disaster/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong>Civil Defense Perspectives July 2012, Vol. 28 No. 5</strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center"><strong></strong>An obscure 1984 newsletter than I unearthed while cleaning out a filing cabinet predicted fiscal armageddon, followed by a world government, because of a Third World debt crisis.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;" align="center">It was said that a default would collapse the entire international banking system. At the time, the total debt of the four largest Latin American countries was: Argentina, $38 billion; Brazil, $88 billion; Mexico, $82 billion; and Venezuela, $31 billion.<span id="more-40"></span></p>
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<p>Somehow disaster was averted then. And now we have Greece, Spain, Italy,… France, and the U.S. The U.S. federal debt ceiling is around $16,000 billion ($16 trillion). The total unfunded liabilities (promises with no apparent means of payment) are not included (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/9ayeeds"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/9ayeeds</strong></a>). These have been variously estimated, from $50 trillion to as high as $222 trillion.</p>
<p>In the recent movie <em>2016</em>, Dinesh D’Souza calls debt “a weapon of mass destruction.” This term is used by others for the hundreds of trillions of dollars in “derivatives” held by major financial institutions.</p>
<p>With the housing crash, we see the effects of debt based on collateral of less value than the loan. What is the value of the “full faith and credit of the United States”?</p>
<p>Holders of U.S. debt can trade it for our devalued assets. The Chinese are buying vast amounts of distressed commercial real estate. Toledo, Ohio, may become the first major Chinese-owned city in America (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/7oeebk4"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/7oeebk4</strong></a>).</p>
<p>The ultimate collateral for U.S. government debt, states Art Robinson, is the labor of the American people.</p>
<p>Many Americans have also mortgaged their own future. Student loans now total $1 trillion; ObamaCare puts the student loan business completely in the hands of the federal government. These loans cannot be discharged by bankruptcy. To obtain what is often a worthless college degree, students have effectively signed up for an indefinite term of indentured servitude.</p>
<p><strong>Fiscal Cliff Ahead</strong></p>
<p>Americans will stand at the edge of a fiscal cliff on Jan 1, 2013—just after the election—of spending cuts, tax increases, and draconian regulations.</p>
<p>The Budget Control Act of 2011 imposed spending cuts of $109 billion per year for 9 years, almost 50% from the defense budget. Hundreds of thousands of layoff notices to military personnel and employees of defense contractors are expected in November. Some predict a loss of 2 million jobs throughout the economy, writes Martin Weiss (<em>Money and Markets </em>9/3/12). This is at a time when the real unemployment rate, including underemployed and discouraged workers is nearly 23% and rising, according to Shadow Government Statistics.</p>
<p>The expiration of tax cuts is the functional equivalent of a tax increase. About 96% of middle-income earners will see federal taxes go up an average $1,800 per year, according to the Tax Policy Center (ibid.).</p>
<p>New taxes in the Affordable Care Act (“ObamaCare”) amount to $525 billion or more between 2010 and 2019. Middle-class Americans and small businesses will pay 75% of it. The individual insurance mandate by itself, if a tax, would be the largest tax increase in U.S. history (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/cj6obf2"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/cj6obf2</strong></a>).</p>
<p>The hidden tax burden called regulation, carried by rich and poor alike, increased by $236 billion over the past two years. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is in the process of promulgating new “anti-pollution” rules that will enable Barack Obama to keep his promise to bankrupt the coal industry and cause the price of electricity to “skyrocket.”</p>
<p>The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) estimated that up to 8.5 percent of nationwide power generation (81,000 MW) is “likely” or “very likely” to be retired because of EPA rules (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/ccoe57r"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/ccoe57r</strong></a>). The Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS, see p 2) alone could shut down 17% of our most affordable electricity generators within 5 years.</p>
<p><strong>What Will Happen to the Dollar?</strong></p>
<p>According to Richard Maybury’s <em>Early Warning Report</em>, the velocity of the dollar is still very low (<a href="http://www.chaostan.com"><strong>www.chaostan.com</strong></a>). But it has been said that “there are only two kinds of paper money in the world. Those which are already worthless, and those that are going to be.” Since the start of Operation Twist in September, 2011, the Fed has been buying 90% of long-term Treasury debt.</p>
<p>Art Robinson notes that interest is the price of renting money. Now near 0%, it suggests the perceived value of fiat money. Will it increase wildly, as many predict? Maybe not.</p>
<p>What has already happened to the dollar is that in 2008 it was worth 8.66 cents in 1947 dollars. The hidden tax of inflation has robbed savers of $19 trillion (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/9l8gja6"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/9l8gja6</strong></a>).</p>
<p><strong>Remember the Eternal Basics, the “4 G’s”</strong></p>
<p>Though investment newsletters suggest some ploys,  I doubt that many could profit from world or national financial collapse. It’s about survival. Watch the fundamentals, and do not be misled by rosy, self-serving forecasts. Diversification is probably wise; owning a share of something with tangible assets is better than owning debt denominated in dollars. Money, however, now seems to be fleeing to sovereign debt for safety. It is likely to be the last to default—by destroying the currency.</p>
<p>The current economy, using sophisticated computer technology, runs on a “just in time” basis. Inventory and stockpiles largely don’t exist, so if supply lines and transportation are impeded, stores will run out of everything quickly. If people lose faith in the financial system, expect bank holidays and empty ATMs. Some cash on hand may be needed for rent or utility bills.</p>
<p>My grandfather’s “4 G’s” were: ground, grub, gold, and guns.</p>
<p>We hope that no readers of this newsletters are planning to survive by looting. But it is said that agencies of the federal government have ordered a billion rounds of hollow-point ammunition. Perhaps in anticipation of widespread civil disorder? What precautions can you take to improve your family’s security?</p>
<p>In Weimar, high inflation lasted 2 years, and hyperinflation for 2 more. To pay monthly expenses of $1,000 for 5 years would take an estimated 38 oz of gold or 2,150 oz of silver, estimates Jeff Clark (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/9bo7gsq"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/9bo7gsq</strong></a>).</p>
<p>Cresson Kearny’s <em>Nuclear War Survival Skills</em> remains the best single source on prudent preparedness. If you don’t already have it, download it and print it out <em>now</em>.</p>
<p><strong>Social Security No Longer a Good Deal</strong></p>
<p><strong></strong>New retirees are the first to likely collect less in Social Security benefits than they paid in taxes, writes Stephen Ohlemacher (AP 8/6/12). Those who retired in 1960 got back about 7 times what they paid in. A married couple retiring last year could anticipate a total of $556,000 in lifetime benefits after paying $598,000 in Social Security taxes—unadjusted for inflation.</p>
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<p><strong>More Americans Get Disability than a Job</strong></p>
<p>Between April and June 2012, about 246,000 Americans were added to Social Security disability rolls, while only 225,000 found jobs. Between January 2009 and June 2012, 3.6 million were added to disability rolls, while a net 1.3 million jobs were lost (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/cvs93nf"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/cvs93nf</strong></a>).</p>
<p><strong>The EPA MATS Job Killer</strong></p>
<p>The MATS is the main part of the Utility MACT Rule, which sets maximum achievable control technology standards for hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) from power plants. Through one of the most expensive rules in history, EPA will try to reduce the level of mercury in power plant emissions below natural levels. Technicians need to wear special protective clothing when measuring levels, not to protect themselves but to ensure accurate measurements, since even breathing on a sample can triple the level, write Willie Soon and Paul Driessen.</p>
<p>U.S. power plants emit 41-48 tons of mercury per year, compared with 44 tons from U.S. forest fires, 400 tons from Chinese power plants, and up to 10,000 tons from volcanoes, geysers, subsea vents, and other natural sources. Speaking on this issue at the DDP annual meeting (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/8dexrrw"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/8dexrrw</strong></a>), Willie Soon noted there are 2,000 ppm mercury in lunar soil.</p>
<p>The EPA estimates that new rules will prevent the loss of 0.00209 IQ points per child in a guesstimated population of 240,000 subsistence fishing households. This “statistical figment,” by EPA math, is supposed to save as much as $6 million at a cost of $9.6 billion in 2016. It effectively bans any new coal-fired plants, so job creation from the rules will be “not statistically different from zero.” It will reduce average disposable household income by $34 billion between 2012 and 2020 (<em>Forbes</em> 6/12/12, <a href="http://tinyurl.com/coc6dbb"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/coc6dbb</strong></a>). For a map of power plants to be closed, see  <a href="http://tinyurl.com/bnz2rzm"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/bnz2rzm</strong></a>.</p>
<p><strong>Economic News Briefs</strong></p>
<p>Iran’s gold imports surged by $1.2 billion in April alone. Central banks added 456 tones in the past year, the most in 5 decades. Nations that are adding significantly to gold reserves include the Philippines, Turkey, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Sri Lanka, and Russia (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/98v3agc"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/98v3agc</strong></a>).</p>
<p>About one-third of deposits have been pulled from Greek banks since 2009. In July 2012, Spaniards withdrew a record 75 billion euros ($94 billion), 7% of the country’s total economic output (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/8t4oqeg"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/8t4oqeg</strong></a>). At this pace, 40% of Spain’s GDP could be sent abroad by year’s end.</p>
<p>Governments of Germany and Switzerland announced that they will no longer store their gold in London or New York (<em>McAlvaney Intelligence Advisor</em>, April 2012).</p>
<p><strong>The Optimistic Scenario</strong></p>
<p>Some say we have already passed the event horizon, beyond which hyperinflation is inevitable. James Cook writes: “Public and private debt, runaway government spending and fiat money have hit the wall.” In the ferocious crisis, “the handouts will have to go. No more green energy, farm and corporate subsidies. No more food stamps, housing, welfare, unemployment and disability. Reduced veterans’ benefits, Social Security and Medicare are certain. Student loans are no more….” When the government’s lifeline runs dry, bankruptcies explode, and crony capitalism dies. “Underfunded lobbyists,… government consultants, trial lawyers and political demonstrators disappear.”</p>
<p>The result could be a better work ethic, self-reliance, stronger character, and restored morality. If the people rally, “American exceptionalism overturns the naysayers” (<em>James Cook Market Update</em>, late June 2012).</p>
<p>Extravagances such as Rio +20, and the hypocrisy displayed at <a href="http://tinyurl.com/9pyfrhr"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/9pyfrhr</strong></a>, might also end.</p>
<p><strong>Hottest Temperatures on Record?</strong></p>
<p>In 1832, Charles Darwin measured the air temperature at noon daily in Rio de Janeiro. The mean was 75.9 °F (±3.9). In June 2010, it was a statistically significant 2 degrees <em>cooler</em>, 73.9 °F (±2.75) (<em>TWTW</em> 6/23/12). However, there were many record highs in the U.S. in the summer of 2012. The former proves nothing; the latter, everything, according to climate alarmists.</p>
<p>Media personalities such as Hal Ginsberg of KRXA 540 AM demands that we “deniers” of the claim that “we are burning up our mother” recant because “former skeptic” Richard Muller did so, based on the BEST study (see September 2011 issue).</p>
<p>Muller has been called a “pretend skeptic.” His daughter Elizabeth Muller, founder and director of the Berkeley Earth Team, registered GreenGov in 2008, and advises governments how to implement “green” policies and reduce their carbon footprints (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/blv4snr"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/blv4snr</strong></a>).</p>
<p>Links to critiques of the surface temperature record and of Muller’s argument are collected in <em>TWTW</em> 8/4/12 on <a href="http://sepp.org"><strong>sepp.org</strong></a>. For example, “Müller Lite: Why Every Scientist Needs a Classical Training” by Christopher Monckton, details logical fallacies such as the <em>argumentum ad ignorantium</em>. Ross McKitrick criticizes the statistical methods. Anthony Watts identifies bias from the misclassification of weather stations. Willis Eschenbach shows that cooling attributed to volcanic eruptions often precedes the eruption. Other critics include Roger Pielke and Andrew Montford.</p>
<p><strong>Kirk Paradise and Henry Lamb, R.I.P.</strong></p>
<p>American civil defense<em> </em>has lost one of its most capable advocates, Kirk Paradise, who revitalized the fallout shelter and radiologic monitoring programs in Huntsville, Alabama. Huntsville remains the only county with civil defense in action. See videos at <a href="www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/huntsville.php"><strong>www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/huntsville.php</strong></a>.</p>
<p>Henry Lamb was the first to call attention to Agenda 21. Subsisting on cheap foodstuffs such as crackers, he broadcast reports from many UN conferences. He traveled the U.S., sleeping in his van. His 2002 talk at DDP, “Global Governance and the Future of the United States” is available at <a href="http://www. ddponline.org/ddp-audio-2002.php"><strong>http://www. ddponline.org/ddp-audio-2002.php</strong></a>. An archive of his work is at<a href="http://www.freedom21.org"><strong> www.freedom21.org</strong></a>.</p>
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		<title>Healthcare Bankruptcy</title>
		<link>http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2012/06/07/healthcare-bankruptcy/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jun 2012 18:23:31 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Civil Defense Perspectives May 2012, Vol. 28 No. 4 To sell national or “universal” (that is, compulsory) health insurance,  “reformers” use individual hardship stories and statistical hype. Barack Obama claimed that medical costs cause a bankruptcy in America every 30 &#8230; <a href="http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2012/06/07/healthcare-bankruptcy/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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<p><strong>Civil Defense Perspectives May 2012, Vol. 28 No. 4</strong></p>
<p>To sell national or “universal” (that is, compulsory) health insurance,  “reformers” use individual hardship stories and statistical hype. Barack Obama claimed that medical costs cause a bankruptcy in America every 30 seconds. Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren claimed that “at least” 46% of all bankruptcies had a medical cause in 2001, and that this represented a 23-fold increase over 20 years.</p>
<p>Although the statistics are flawed, the cost problem is real. The proposed solutions do not prevent bankruptcy, but rather assure it—for the existing medical system, and ultimately the whole economy. <span id="more-36"></span><strong>Flawed Analysis</strong></p>
<p>Bankruptcy is caused by debt and the loss of the income required to service it. Single-payer advocates attribute bankruptcy to medical reasons if the debtor reported uncovered medical bills exceeding $1,000 in 2 years, or lost at least 2 weeks worth of income because of illness or injury. In contrast, a study at the University of California at Davis concluded that only 5% of bankruptcies were caused by medical problems <a href="(http://tinyurl.com/7muc7vy">(<strong>http://tinyurl.com/7muc7vy</strong></a>). Warren arrived at her startling increase by greatly broadening the definition of medical bankruptcy to include any filer who reported uncontrolled gambling, drug or alcohol addiction, or birth or adoption of a child (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/82epscl"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/82epscl</strong></a>).</p>
<p><strong>The Healthcare Bubble</strong></p>
<p>A startling increase in health-related spending, however, is undeniable, and unsustainable. From around 10% of per capita income in 1970, it has accelerated to consume more than 30% of per capita income in 2010 (Arthur Robinson, <em>Common Sense 2012</em>).</p>
<p>In 2008, the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services (HHS) estimated national health expenditures at an average of about $7,800 per person, or more than $31,000 for a family of four. The Census Bureau estimated that almost one-fifth of U.S. households earn less income than their share of national health expenditures.  Clearly, U.S. citizens cannot afford this, writes Andrew Foy, M.D. (<em>J Amer Phys Surg</em>, summer 2012).</p>
<p>Foy writes: “The U.S. healthcare system is a huge bubble created by misguided U.S. government policies that are made possible by the U.S. government’s ability to borrow money at artificially low interest rates.”</p>
<p>Although national health insurance proponents like to blame the cost spiral on fee-for-service payment, the upward trend began around 1965, with the enactment of Medicare and Medicaid, and with the trend to replace out-of-pocket payment with third-party coverage, that is to shift responsibility from the individual to everyone in the insurance pool.</p>
<p>Between 1999 and 2011, government spending on healthcare increased by 240%,  while GDP increased only 62%. Since 1970, government spending on healthcare has increased 5,400%.</p>
<p>The so-called Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA or “ObamaCare”) pours in more billions of subsidies, heedless of the possibility of being overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court or repealed by Congress. Just one example, the equivalent of six Solyndras, is $3.4 billion in loan guarantees to newly created state-sponsored insurers called Consumer Operated and Oriented Plans, or CO-OPs. The White House predicts that 91% of the CO-OP loans will fail—and of course taxpayers will be stuck with the bill (<strong>http://tinyurl.com/7maxrf5</strong>).</p>
<p>When government spending on healthcare declines—as it must, “healthcare spending will decrease dramatically, healthcare prices will drop, revenues will decline, and profits for the healthcare industry and related industries will dry up,” Foy writes.</p>
<p>“The healthcare bubble will burst.”</p>
<p>Medicine will survive. But physicians will have to give patients what <em>they</em> value, instead of giving the medical-industrial complex what <em>it</em> values.</p>
<p><strong>Medical Care Versus Healthcare</strong></p>
<p>Decades ago, we purchased medical care, and paid at the time of service. Now, we buy “healthcare,” which means we are buying <em>payments</em> for a wide range of items marginally related to health, writes Ralph Weber. With a “medical loss ratio” of 80% for an insurance policy (80% of premiums paid out in claims), 20% is lost immediately. Since those premiums also finance contraception, wigs for cancer patients, and counseling for drug addicts, at least 40% is not paying for medical care. Today’s medical practices need to dedicate so many people to billing and administrative functions that the average practice overhead is more than 60%, so that in many cases out of $100 in premium, only $16 or less actually goes to the doctor providing care.</p>
<p>Single-payer advocates claim that Medicare is a model of efficiency, with only 3% going to “administration.” On the other hand, Deane Waldman, M.D., author of <em>Uproot U.S. Healthcare</em>, states that 40% of all the money the U.S. spent on “healthcare” in 2010 just disappeared. He added up all monies that went to anything or anyone associated with providing patient care: hospitals, nursing homes, professionals, pharmaceutical companies, wheelchair manufacturers, etc., and compared that number to the total amount listed under  “healthcare” in the federal budget.</p>
<p>True value can only be determined in a free marketplace. The best evidence that prices are excessive comes from real prices charged to self-paying patients and posted on the internet (<a href="http://www.surgerycenterok.com"><strong>www.surgerycenterok.com</strong></a>). These prices include the facility, the surgeon, and the anesthesiologist. Patients can pay five to ten times as much at most hospitals, even “nonprofits.” Dr. Smith goes to Washington to explain: <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ke3ekw"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/7ke3ekw</strong></a>.</p>
<p><strong>A Needed Correction</strong></p>
<p>The unfunded liabilities of Medicare—promises made with no source of revenue to cover them—are variously estimated, but are probably at least $50 trillion, an amount that cannot possibly be paid. Medicare has been likened to PAC-Man, a mechanism for devouring the entire federal budget, and then the whole economy. Throughout the medical economy, misallocation of resources is at least 40%. Bankruptcy could be a short, sharp, painful shock leading to the necessary correction.</p>
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<p><strong>How Much Should You Pay for Medical Care?</strong></p>
<p>The biggest reason for the medical spending spiral is the lack of straightforward information on prices and actual costs. Third-party payment with “assignment” of benefits (paying providers, not subscribers) disguises and increase costs.</p>
<p>Those feeding on the cash cow of third-party payment have a vested interest in keeping prices as high as possible—and true payment rates and costs a secret.</p>
<p>Self-paying patients are often quoted and billed the “chargemaster” price. This is at least three times what Medicare pays, and also much more than “providers” have agreed to accept from health plans. A generous-sounding “discount” of say 50% isn’t all that great when you’re starting with a price inflated by as much as tenfold.</p>
<p>When some people get a “discount,” other people pay more. How can self-paying patients protect themselves against bearing the brunt of cost-shifting? Why should they have to make up for underpayment by government plans, managed care, and irresponsible patients who don’t pay their bills?</p>
<p>Patients may resort to “re-pricing” or negotiation services or brokers. Beware: these services may be touted as “free,” but the negotiator collects a portion of the price or of the “savings.” We are aware of cases in which the negotiator got paid more than the surgeon! <strong><em>If the patient deals directly with the physician or the facility, then the total amount paid goes to people who cared for the patient, and the total amount of savings is kept by the patient.</em></strong></p>
<p>It is best to determine the price before having the procedure. But even after having an emergency procedure, patients need not accept the bill without question. Collection agencies and lawyers are expensive, and so is delay. Direct, timely payment is in everyone’s best interest. Patients need to be armed with information about what a fair price would be. They need to talk to a person with the authority to make a deal, and offer prompt payment.</p>
<p>To get the astonishingly low prices posted by the Surgery Center of Oklahoma (see p. 1), the patient has to go to Oklahoma City and pay cash in advance. Other hospitals have, however, been known to match these prices. Some hospitals and physicians will agree to a package price for certain procedures.</p>
<p>Resources that may be useful:</p>
<p><a href="http://MediBid.com"><strong>MediBid.com</strong></a>. This matches patients and physicians or facilities for a nominal up-front fee.</p>
<p><a href="http://Healthcarebluebook.com"><strong>Healthcarebluebook.com</strong></a>. Patient or physician can enter a procedure and search for a “fair” price, based on claims information. Expanded information is offered, for a fee, to self-funded employment plans.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://AAPSonline.org">AAPSonline.org</a>. </strong>Direct-payment-friendly and third-party-free practices are listed under the “patients” tab. There are also links to Medicare carrier websites that list opted-out physicians by state (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/773547j"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/773547j</strong></a>).</p>
<p><strong>Individual Facilities.</strong> In addition to anesthesiologist G. Keith Smith, M.D., (<a href="http://www.surgerycenterok.com"><strong>www.surgerycenterok.com</strong></a>), pioneers in direct-pay surgery are surgeons James Spearman, M.D.,  (<a href="http://www.travelsurgeryusa.com"><strong>www.travelsurgeryusa.com</strong></a>) and Keith Petersen, M.D. (<a href="http://www.noinsurancesurgery.com"><strong>www.noinsurancesurgery.com</strong></a>).</p>
<p>Federal government “reforms” move us toward more central control, more third-party payment, and more barriers to access—and more outsourcing to foreign lands, called “medical tourism.” Free-market reforms are essential to keeping medical care available here in the U.S., at a reasonable price.</p>
<p><strong>End-of-Life Energy Subsidies</strong></p>
<p>Medical spending at the “end of life” may be criticized as diverting money from “healthcare.” Such sickness care, of course,  prolongs the lives of many who would die quickly without it.</p>
<p>A different logic applies to environmentally correct energy projects that are economically nonviable when taken off life support. Charles Battig calls renewables “franken-energy.” Unlike Frankenstein’s creation, which received its life-force from lightning, franken-energy is recharged by political mandates and tax funding (<em>The Week That Was</em> 5/26/12, <a href="http://www.sepp.org"><strong>www.sepp.org</strong></a>).</p>
<p>“Emissions-free solar and wind energy, on which the U.K. plans increasingly to rely, are expensive,” writes Rael Jean Isaac. “The government estimates that a planned offshore wind farm project ringing the coast will cost £140 billion, or £5,600 ($8,972) for every household in the country. Conventional energy could provide the same amount of energy at 5% of the cost” (<em>WSJ</em> 6/5/12, <a href="http://tinyurl.com/79ecr72"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/79ecr72</strong></a>).</p>
<p>The opportunity cost for the UK’s subsidies to renewable is 10,000 lost jobs between 2009 and 2010 alone. Spain’s subsidies have cost 110,500 jobs. The healthiest economy in Europe, Germany’s, is also threatened.</p>
<p>“We’re destroying the foundations of our prosperity,” says Fritz Vahrenholt, former hero of the German environmental movement. “In the end what we are doing is putting the German automotive sector at risk, the steel, copper and chemical sectors, silicon, you name it” (ibid.).</p>
<p>“End” can be a verb as well as a noun. The environmental movement is not content with subsidizing its darlings, but wants to end—to kill—energy sources that work. Marita Noon asks, “Where will you be when the lights go out?” (<a href="http://tinyurl.com/77rg7b3"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/77rg7b3</strong></a>). Having blocked new nuclear plants for 30 years, kept much of the U.S. off limits to oil drilling, and all but shut down new coal plants, the environmental lobby is now targeting natural gas, she notes.</p>
<p>By heavily regulating phantom risks, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) saves phantom lives and imaginary dollars. But the real costs are driving us to bankruptcy and death.</p>
<p>For the mistake of telling it like it is, Al “Crucify Them” Armendariz resigned from the EPA. He was, however, “a perfect general for Mr. Obama’s war against natural gas” (<em>WSJ</em> 5/3/12, <a href="http://tinyurl.com/84xzo6z"><strong>http://tinyurl.com/84xzo6z</strong></a>).</p>
<p>“Energy Abundance or Poverty: the Choice of the Century” is the theme for this year’s meeting of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness at the Long Island Marriott, July 27-29. See enclosed flyer or register online at <a href="http://www.ddponline.org"><strong>www.ddponline.org</strong></a>.</p>
<p><strong>Bernard L. Cohen, R.I.P.</strong></p>
<p>We have lost a great friend in Bernie Cohen, a brilliant scientist with integrity. He never let theory trump data. He set out to demonstrate the hazards of indoor radon, but his classic study, which covered most counties in the U.S., demolished the linear no-threshold hypothesis of radiation carcinogenesis (<em>CDP</em>, January 2000). Two of his presentations at DDP meetings, on radioactive waste disposal, are available at: <a href="http://www.ddponline.org/ddp-audio-2003.php"><strong>www.ddponline.org/ddp-audio-2003.php</strong></a> and <a href="http://www.ddponline.org/ddp-audio-2006.php"><strong>www.ddponline.org/ddp-audio-2006.php</strong></a>. Articles by Dr. Cohen published by the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons are in <em>J Amer Phys Surg </em>, <a href="http://www.jpands.org/vol8no2/cohen.pdf">Summer 2003</a> and <a href="http://www.jpands.org/vol13no3/cohen.pdf">Fall 2008</a>. Books include <em>Before It’s Too Late: A Scientist’s Case FOR Nuclear Energy.</em></p>
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		<title>Salvation, or Existential Threat?</title>
		<link>http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2012/03/01/salvation-or-existential-threat/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Mar 2012 02:48:40 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Civil Defense Perspectives March 2012, Vol. 28 No. 3 [Published April 2012] Muslim countries can be an existential threat to Israel and pose a terrorist threat throughout the world—because of petrodollars. But the Middle East could “go back to being &#8230; <a href="http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2012/03/01/salvation-or-existential-threat/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Civil Defense Perspectives March 2012, Vol. 28 No. 3 </strong>[Published April 2012]</p>
<p>Muslim countries can be an existential threat to Israel and pose a terrorist threat throughout the world—because of petrodollars. But the Middle East could “go back to being an obscure backwater,” as predicted by Lawrence Solomon (<em>Financial Post</em>  3/21/12), <em>if</em> the rest of the world develops its own oil.<span id="more-31"></span></p>
<p>All told, Solomon writes, “some 38 countries in every continent in the world have 4.8 trillion barrels of shale oil, making oil a ubiquitous commodity that gives every region of the world the wherewithal to be energy self-sufficient.” Israel has some 250 billion barrels in one basin near Jerusalem, an amount comparable to Saudi Arabia’s reserves, he writes.</p>
<p>The concept of “Peak Oil”—the idea that the world is running out of “fossil fuel”—was the first rationale for global energy rationing, to be followed by the threat of a new ice age and then by global warming. And it still lurks, like the Undead. It is the foundation for the UK’s energy policy, which assumed that natural gas was insecure, limited, and therefore expensive enough to make every other generation technology competitive, writes Nick Grealy (<em>No Hot Air </em>9/22/11, cited by CCNet 9/22/11).</p>
<p>Estimates of the potential of shale gas are not just game-changing, he says, but jaw-dropping, at least to the £2,000 per day energy consultants who consistently denied it while they were “living in a bubble of self-reinforcement.”</p>
<p><strong>Oil and Gas Resources</strong></p>
<p>When the Obama Administration says that the U.S. has only 20 billion barrels of oil in “proven” reserves, that is the amount recoverable from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. It excludes areas that the U.S. federal government has declared off limits, such as the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR),  federal waters off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, about 45% of the Gulf of Mexico, and federal lands in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. According to the Institute for Energy Research, the U.S. has more than 1.4 trillion barrels recoverable with existing technology; Saudi Arabia has 260 billion (<em>Washington Times </em>3/19/12).</p>
<p>The Bakken Shale (being tapped in North Dakota) was estimated to have only 150 million “technically recoverable barrels of oil” in 1995. By April 2008, the estimate had increased to 4 billion, and in 2010 to 8 billion. As technology advances, recoverable oil there could eventually exceed 500 billion barrels (<em>WSJ</em> 3/11/12, cited by <em>TWTW</em> 3/17/12, <strong><a href="www.sepp.org">www.sepp.org</a></strong>).</p>
<p>China is thought to have 30 trillion cubic meters of recoverable shale gas, the largest repository of shale gas in the world (<em>WSJ</em> 3/16/12, <em>TWTW</em> 3/17/12).</p>
<p>Blackpool in northwest England has some 5.6 trillion cubic meters of natural gas in shale rock, more than in Iraq’s whole reserves, enough to supply the whole of the UK’s gas needs for 5 decades, according Cuadrilla Resources Ltd. (CCNet 1/11/12).</p>
<p><strong>An Existential Threat to Green Dogma</strong></p>
<p>Shale gas could bring about Britain’s “second energy revolution” and end the nation’s economic woes. If unchecked, however, the UK’s “dash for gas” would “endanger our carbon dioxide goals,” said then-energy and climate change secretary Chris Huhne. It has reduced the cost of natural gas to less than $3 per thousand cubic feet (or million BTU) from a peak of $8 a few years ago—and makes windmills seem unaffordable.  Recovery depends on the use of hydraulic fracking, and environmental activists are calling on the UK to follow the lead of France in imposing a moratorium on fracking (<em>WSJ </em>9/23/11).</p>
<p>The European Commission is studying whether current EU environmental laws apply to shale gas production (<em>Fox Business News </em>9/22/11, cited by CCNet 9/23/11).</p>
<p>The Sierra Club and other environmental pressure groups are redoubling efforts to “stop fracking in its tracks.” Fortunately, writes Paul Driessen, much of U.S. shale gas is on private land, where it can’t be easily locked up by federal diktat (CFACT 3/29/12, <strong>http://tinyurl.com/7kmczrg</strong>). Also, in the U.S. private landowners can profit from developing this resource.</p>
<p><strong>What Is “Fracking”?</strong></p>
<p>Horizontal drilling with hydraulic fracturing has been used by petroleum engineers since the 1950s to extract both petroleum   and natural gas.  After a well is drilled, a wire with explosive charges is dropped into it to create fissures in the rock. Water, chemicals, and sand are pumped in under pressure to open channels and keep them open, so gas can flow out when the fluid is pumped out (<strong><a href="http://tinyurl.com/6oytaum">http://tinyurl.com/6oytaum</a></strong>).</p>
<p>Environmentalists describe fracking as “reckless,” “dangerous,” and “poisonous,” and demand that shale gas development be stopped for further study of potential water pollution and seismic effects. Moratoria are in effect in Maryland, New York, and other states.</p>
<p>In fact, drilling and fracking have been carefully regulated by states for decades, Driessen writes (op. cit.).  There has never been a confirmed case of water pollution due to fracking. Rare instances of methane entering ground water are not from fracking but from failure of well integrity and can occur with water wells. Almost all the chemicals used today are also used in foods or cosmetics. The reported “earthquakes” have been barely detectable tremors near fracking sites.</p>
<p>According to Mike Stephenson, head of energy science at the British Geological Survey, the risk of earthquakes is low, and there are scientific tools to detect problems. Earthquakes stronger than 3.3 on the Richter scale, which typically cause no property damage, are unlikely, and most would be much weaker. The seismicity of coal mining is remarkably similar (Kari Lundgren, <em>Bloomberg</em> 1/10/12. CCNet 1/11/12).</p>
<p><strong>Built on a Fault</strong></p>
<p>The environmentalist agenda threatens earth-shaking consequences to Western civilization: war for oil, subservience to a hostile Russian regime threatening to cut off the gas supply,  societal upheaval from economic chaos. Apocalyptic scares—climate change, massive earthquakes, radiation peril—have led to suicidal policy. The agenda itself, however, built on fantasy, bad science, even outright lies, could be brought down by reality.  The prospect of affordable energy is fracturing the green foundation.</p>
<p><strong>Training for Propagandists</strong></p>
<p>The University of East Anglia (UEA), heart of the Climategate, is offering a new postgraduate course aimed at bringing together “researchers in the environmental sciences, philosophy, history and literature to develop new ways of thinking about environmental change and social transitions.” The cost: £5,000 for UK students, and £11,000 for overseas students. UEA already runs a project in “eco poetry” designed to “stimulate and strengthen children’s environmental awareness.”</p>
<p>“The dividing line between creative writing and climate science—sometimes thin—has been triumphantly dissolved, writes Andrew Orlowski (<em>Register</em> 4/2/12, cited in CCNet 4/3/11).</p>
<p><strong>Numbers</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>$6.8 million: </strong>fine paid by motor fuel suppliers for not using cellulosic biofuel that doesn’t exist (<em>NYT </em>1/9/12).</li>
<li><strong>80%: </strong>percentage of DOE loans for “green” energy that went to Obama backers (<strong>http://tinyurl.com/7urhqmv</strong>).</li>
<li><strong>$330 billion of $560 billion: </strong>portion of U.S. trade deficit for buying imported crude oil (<em>TWTW </em>3/31/12, www.sepp.org).</li>
<li><strong>£1.2 million: </strong>amount paid to wind farm in UK to <em>not</em> produce electricity for 8.5 h, to avoid overloading the network during high winds; 10 times the value of the electricity that could have been produced (<em>Sunday Telegraph </em>9/18/11).</li>
<li><strong>$17 billion: </strong>amount Chinese companies invested since 2010 in North American oil sands ventures (<em>TWTW</em> 3/17/12).</li>
<li><strong>&gt; $2 billion: </strong>2011 revenue of top environmentalist charities.</li>
<li><strong>$26.67 per gallon: </strong>amount U.S. Navy pays for biofuel, while jet fuel costs less than $4/gal (<em>TWTW</em> 12/31/11).</li>
<li><strong>&gt; $1 trillion: </strong>cost of EPA regulations scheduled to take effect in the next few years, destroying hundreds of thousands of jobs (Texas Public Policy Foundation, February 2012).</li>
<li><strong>8.7%: </strong>the percentage of name-plate capacity that is actually available in summer from wind turbines. During peak hour, available capacity may be as little as 1% (<em>TWTW</em> 2/11/12).</li>
<li><strong>3 years: </strong>enough to build Trans-Alaska Pipeline; not enough for Obama to study Keystone proposal (<em>TWTW</em> 1/21/12).</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Home Solar Schemes</strong></p>
<p>Now being widely advertised, tempting deals for roof-top solar systems may be a way to subsidize Wall Street to buy Chinese solar panels, writes T. J. Rodgers (<em>WSJ</em> 12/8/11).</p>
<p>Installation is free—all you have to do is “sign a contract and write a check” (go.solarcity.com). The homeowner gives up the 30% federal tax credit and the depreciation, and agrees to buy power long-term from the limited liability company at just below market rates. After the 10-year payback, profits begin to roll in—to the LLC. As the end of the 20-year lifetime nears, a bank has likely locked in long-term profits and sold the LLC in a “solar-backed security.” Wall Street understands the time value of money; the federal government and consumer do not. By the way, one of the largest installers, SolarCity, uses the LLC strategy and buys its solar panels from the low-cost Chinese supplier, Yingli. Chinese manufacturers have been accused of “dumping” in the U.S.; a 4.73% tariff has been imposed, which is smaller than expected. SolarCity was denied a DOE loan guarantee.</p>
<p><strong>Land Use Requirements</strong></p>
<p>With 1960s’ productivity, it would have taken 8 billion acres to feed the world population in 1998, instead of  3.7 billion, states Indur Goklany. The saving of 4.3 billion acres is about the area of South America. Organic farming produces 29% less corn and 39% less wheat than conventional methods (<em>WSJ</em> 1/18/12).</p>
<p><strong>A Real Stimulus</strong></p>
<p>Against a background of four decades of decline, there has recently been a small increase in domestic production of petroleum (<em>Energy Advocate</em>, February 2012). More than 150,000 new oil and gas jobs have been added over the past 5 years. Some $145 billion will be spent drilling and completing new gas wells this year, up from $13 billion in 2000 (<em>WSJ</em> 2/2/12). Numerous sand mines are opening up to support the drilling. And manufacturing industries, including steelmakers, are returning to take advantage of lower energy costs.</p>
<p><strong>Subsidies</strong></p>
<p>Industries favored by the green lobby receive subsidies in the form of cash handouts. The “subsidy” received by the oil industry is a “tax subsidy,” that is tax deductions for the costs of doing business, most of which are also available to other industries. The effective tax rate (taxes as a share of net income) was 41% for oil and gas companies in 2010, compared with 26% for other manufacturers on the S&amp;P Industrial index, and, before the 2009 Obama-Pelosi stimulus, -164% for wind and -249% for solar-thermal.  That is, the more power these alternatives generate, the more the taxpayer pays (<em>WSJ </em>3/14/12, <em>TWTW</em> 3/17/12).</p>
<p><strong>The Gulf Washing Machine</strong></p>
<p>The rapid cleansing of the Gulf after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill resulted from a fortuitous combination of ravenous bacteria, ocean currents, and local topography. Because the Gulf is bounded on three sides by land, currents don’t flow in one direction but slosh around as if trapped in a washing machine. The population of bacteria near the well grew, then was swept away by currents. But when the water circled back, still loaded with hungry bacteria, they mopped up another round of hydrocarbons, with the population increasing on every cycle (<em>WSJ</em> 1/10/12).</p>
<p><strong>River on Fire—in 1783</strong></p>
<p>Some believe that without the EPA, pollution would be so bad that rivers would catch fire. In fact, it has long been known that naturally occurring methane from river beds can be set aflame, and in 1783, Thomas Paine and George Washington decided to try an experiment. The results were published in 1819 (see <strong><a href="http://sppiblog.org/news/6881">http://sppiblog.org/news/6881</a></strong>):</p>
<p>“The muddy bottom of rivers contains great quantities of impure and often inflammable air (carbureted hydrogen gas), injurious to life; and which remains entangled in the mud till let loose from thence by some accident. This air is produced by the dissolution and decomposition of any combustible matter falling into the water and sinking into the mud….” The “research team” disturbed the mud with poles, then set the gas alight.</p>
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		<title>Is Kyoto Dead?</title>
		<link>http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2012/01/01/is-kyoto-dead/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Jan 2012 02:37:07 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Civil Defense Perspectives January 2012, Vol. 28 No. 2 [published April 2012] The Kyoto Protocol is due to expire in 2012, and the 17th annual Conference of Parties (COP-17) in Durban, South Africa,  which was supposed to extend it, appears &#8230; <a href="http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2012/01/01/is-kyoto-dead/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Civil Defense Perspectives January 2012, Vol. 28 No. 2</strong> [published April 2012]</p>
<p>The Kyoto Protocol is due to expire in 2012, and the 17th annual Conference of Parties (COP-17) in Durban, South Africa,  which was supposed to extend it, appears to have reduced it to an empty shell.<span id="more-27"></span></p>
<p>After two weeks of partying at luxury hotels, some 10,000 delegates left with an agreement to meet again, writes Benny Peiser (CCNet 12/14/11). The BASIC countries—Brazil, South Africa, India, and China—achieved their goal of delaying any agreement on a replacement for Kyoto until at least 2015, and any actual actions to cut emissions until at least 2020.</p>
<p>India’s environment minister Jayanti Nataraj demanded to know: “How do I give a blank check signing away the livelihood rights of 1.2 billion members of our population?”</p>
<p>Within days after Durban, Canada became the first country to exercise its legal right to withdraw from Kyoto, which “could jeopardize any gains made at the Durban meeting,” according to an Indian official (<em>India Today </em>12/14/11).</p>
<p>Withdrawing would save Canada about $14 billion in penalties for failing to meet its Kyoto target of reducing greenhouse gases by 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020.</p>
<p>According to Canada’s environment minister Peter Kent, “to meet the targets under Kyoto for 2012 would be the equivalent of either removing every car, truck, ATV, tractor, ambulance, police car and vehicle of every kind from Canadian roads or closing down the entire&#8230;agricultural sector and cutting heat to every home, office, hospital, factory and building in Canada” (ibid.).</p>
<p><strong>Peace for All Time?</strong></p>
<p>The objective is world government, writes Lord Christopher Monckton, who arrived at the meeting by parachute (<strong><a href="http://tinyurl.com/7nsrb64">http://tinyurl.com/7nsrb64</a>)</strong>, after initially being excluded. Monckton called attention to the 1,000 permanent bureaucracies established since Cancun, and the now 138-page draft treaty (<strong><a href="http://tinyurl.com/6ocelap">http://tinyurl.com/6ocelap</a></strong>).</p>
<p>The Canute-like goal is to limit “global warming” to 1 °C above pre-industrial levels, which would “take us halfway back to the last Ice Age.” The CO<sub>2</sub> concentration target could be as low as 300 ppmv CO<sub>2</sub> equivalent, including all greenhouse gases, compared with current 560 ppmv. This implies reducing CO<sub>2  </sub>itself to 210 ppmv, the level at which plants begin to die.</p>
<p>The proposed treaty (<strong><a href="http://tinyurl.com/6r5ytu8">http://tinyurl.com/6r5ytu8</a></strong>)<strong> </strong>would disband military forces: “&#8230;all Parties shall cease all destructive activities that contribute to climate change, in particular the activities of warfare, production of materials and services that support warfare, and to divert associated financial resources and investments into the shared global effort to combat a common enemy: climate change” [§81].</p>
<p>The amount of funds to be made available annually to the developing Parties “shall be equivalent to the budget that developed countries spend on defence, security, and warfare” [§47].</p>
<p>The UN would be the global army and police. An “International Climate Court of Justice” would enforce the treaty. This kangaroo court would require Annex 1 (Western) countries to pay ever larger sums to UN bureaucrats, who would distribute the money as they saw fit. “Developing” countries could not be brought before the Court, no matter what.</p>
<p>Monckton predicted that eco-lunatics would send in troops to shut down entire industries for noncompliance with their UN treaty. He stated that they had sent goons into certain regions of Uganda, killed off the population, and declared the areas “carbon-free zones” (Ileana Johnson Paugh, <em>Canada Free Press </em>12/13/11, <strong><a href="http://tinyurl.com/7cyo6ss">http://tinyurl.com/7cyo6ss</a></strong>).</p>
<p>Starting in 2013/14, the world government will require extensive reports from Western nations on “greenhouse-gas emission inventories” and on financial contributions, which are viewed as reparations for climate crimes, to aid climate mitigation efforts by Third-World countries. Monckton notes that “the inexorable increase in compulsory reporting was one of the mechanisms by which the unelected <em>Kommissars</em> of the anti-democratic European Union acquired absolute power over the member states.” EU advisors, he states, have been coaching the UN in the use of similar techniques to centralize global power.</p>
<p><strong>De-railing the Train</strong></p>
<p>A few things happened on the way to the climate apocalypse. First, the financial apocalypse: “The notion that rich (or formerly rich) countries are going to ship $100 billion every year to the Micronesias of the world is risible, especially after they have spent it all on Greece” (Bret Stephens, <em>WSJ</em> 11/29/11).</p>
<p>Then there was Climategate, with its “watered-down” predictions. A new religion “cannot easily survive more than a few ounces of self-doubt” (ibid., quoted in <em>TWTW </em>12/3/11). “Climategate did for the global warming controversy what the Pentagon Papers did for the Vietnam War 40 years ago. It changed the narrative decisively.” writes Steven Hayward (<em>Weekly Standard </em>12/12/11). And the sequel “is as ugly as the original.”</p>
<p>A handful of dubious messages might be explained by “context,” he writes. “But they are so numerous that it doesn’t require an advanced degree in pattern recognition to make out that these emails constitute not just a ‘smoking gun’ of scientific bias, but a belching howitzer.” More so than the 2009 batch, “these emails make clear the close collaboration between the leading IPCC scientists and environmental advocacy groups, government agencies, and partisan journalists.”</p>
<p><strong>“It. Isn’t. Happening.” But…</strong></p>
<p>Monckton reports that plopping these three pebbles into conversations at Durban produced ripples of aghast silence:  No statistically significant warming for 15 years; rebounding Arctic sea ice; little 30-year trend in global sea ice; five times as many polar bears as 70 years ago; and a growing Kilimanjaro glacier, which had been losing ice since 1880.</p>
<p>Monckton warns against complacency, however. Those cashing in on the scam will not just fade away. They want to turn the billions now flowing into trillions. Failure of a treaty will not stop inside operators, who are putting together potent, costly side agreements that will allow them to work around obstacles such as the U.S. Senate (CFACT 12/2/11, <strong><a href="http://tinyurl.com/8yzu269">http://tinyurl.com/8yzu269</a></strong>  and <strong><a href="http://tinyurl.com/7j82xtf">http://tinyurl.com/7j82xtf</a></strong>).</p>
<p><strong>Post-Durban Christmas Ditty</strong></p>
<p>On the first day of Doomsville, alarmists gave to me:</p>
<p>12 Days in Durban</p>
<p>11 Journos hyping</p>
<p>10 Temps-not-Leaping</p>
<p>9 Mann’s-a-Dancing</p>
<p>8 Economies-busting</p>
<p>7 Seas-not-rising</p>
<p>6 Carbon phobias</p>
<p><strong>5 thousand e-mailed things </strong>[Climategate II]</p>
<p>4 Absurd reports</p>
<p>3 Skeptic “birds”</p>
<p>2 Climate-gates</p>
<p><strong>And a message entirely fact-free!</strong></p>
<p align="right">                Peter C. Glover, <em>Energy Tribune </em>12/13/11<strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong>Global Warming Windfalls</strong></p>
<p>The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has counted up 641 programs in place at 130 federal agencies in 2010 to prop up windmill technology and underwrite solar panel manufacturers. It could not provide a reliable estimate of cost to the taxpayers from the loans, tax credits, purchase of “green” vehicles, and regulations (<em>Washington Times</em> 3/19/12).</p>
<p><strong>Gems from the 5,000 Emails</strong></p>
<p>“I also think the science is being manipulated to put a political spin on it which for all our sakes might not be too clever in the long run”  (Peter Thorne of NOAA to Phil Jones, 2005).</p>
<p>“We’ve picked up a number of people from developing countries so IPCC can claim good geographic representation…. As CLAs [contributing lead authors]&#8230;we are working with about 50% good people who can write reasonable assessments and 50% who probably can’t” (Phil Jones, 2004).</p>
<p>“It seems that a few people have a very strong say, and no matter how much talking goes on beforehand, the big decisions [about the IPCC’s summary for policy makers] are made at the eleventh hour by a select core group” (Timothy Carter, Finnish Environmental Institute, 2000—Hayward, op. cit.).</p>
<p>“The data does not matter. We are not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models” (Chris Folland, Hadley Centre).</p>
<p>“The models are convenient fictions that provide something very useful” (David Frame, climate modeler, Oxford University).</p>
<p>“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony… climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world” (Christine Stewart, former Canadian Minister of the Environment—<em>CFP </em>op. cit.).</p>
<p>“The important thing is to be sure they’re [climate skeptics] are losing the PR battle” (Michael Mann).</p>
<p><strong>Nobelist Quits APS in Protest</strong></p>
<p>Dr. Ivar Giaever, 1973 winner of the Nobel Prize in physics for his discoveries related to tunneling in superconductors, resigned from the American Physical Society because of his objection to the APS position on global-warming fears. The APS insists on calling evidence that anthropogenic emissions of CO<sub>2</sub> are warming the planet “incontrovertible.” This word is rarely used in science, Giaever said, “because by its very nature, science questions prevailing ideas.”</p>
<p>He writes: “The claim&#8230;is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8 degree Kelvin in about 150 years, which (if true) means to me that the temperature has been amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have improved in this ‘warming’ period.”</p>
<p><strong>Worst Ever Climate Story</strong></p>
<p>The weather is becoming more erratic by the year, reported Justin Gillis (<em>NYT </em>12/24/11), with three or four disasters each year whose costs exceed $1 billion. A major question is whether extreme events are linked to human-caused global warming—now often called “climate change” or “climate disruption.”</p>
<p>Benjamin Santer claims that “we are changing the large-scale properties of the atmosphere—we know that beyond a shadow of a doubt.” And “you can’t engage in this vast planetary experiment&#8230;and have no impact on the frequency and duration of extreme events.” We could find out more if Washington would fund more research, but money is tight, and “the political environment for new climate-science initiatives has turned hostile.”</p>
<p>Even though he thinks that the media overall does a good job on climate reporting, Roger Pielke, Jr., thinks this story is “breathtakingly bad” (<strong><a href="http://tinyurl.com/7wv3u6r">http://tinyurl.com/7wv3u6r</a></strong>).<strong> </strong>He notes:</p>
<ul>
<li>$1 billion in 2011 is about the same as $400 million in 1980. After adjusting for inflation, damage in 1980 was about the same as in 2011.</li>
<li>The most powerful tornadoes, which cause almost all of the damage, have <em>decreased</em> in the past 50 years.</li>
<li>NOAA has a robust climate attribution effort, ignored in the article. It has found no evidence of causality from increasing greenhouse gases. The IPCC also contradicts much of what the article says on climate extremes.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>How Science Works</strong></p>
<p>“In general we look for a new law by the following process. First we guess it. Then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what would be implied if this law that we guessed is right. Then we compare the result of the computation to nature, with experiment or experience; compare it directly with observation, to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment, it is wrong” (Richard Feynman, cited by William Happer, <em>WSJ</em> 3/26/12). Happer writes that when observations fail to conform to the UN IPCC models, “Feynman has told us what conclusions to draw about the theory.”</p>
<p><strong>The Durban Delusion</strong></p>
<p>By Feb 28, 2012, countries around the world were supposed to submit their follow-up reports to Durban, on a “work plan on enhancing mitigation ambition.” By mid-March only 19, including the U.S.,  had done so. “Gone is the spirit of compromise,” laments Sonja van Renssen (<em>European Energy News </em>3/26/12, <strong><a href="http://tinyurl.com/6w2dhr9">http://tinyurl.com/6w2dhr9</a></strong>). China has returned to the “rhetoric of old.” The bottom-up approach is proving to be insufficient. A “top-down” approach, like in the EU, is needed: a legally binding, enforceable treaty.</p>
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		<title>3,550  Miles on a Bike for Defense</title>
		<link>http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2011/11/01/3550-miles-on-a-bike-for-defense/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Nov 2011 06:33:53 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Civil Defense Perspectives November 2011, Vol. 28 No. 1 On Dec. 7, 2011, Pearl Harbor Day, Stephen Jones arrived at his destination in Oceanside, Calif., having traveled 3,550 miles by bicycle from Martha’s Vineyard since Sep 23. Along the way, &#8230; <a href="http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2011/11/01/3550-miles-on-a-bike-for-defense/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Civil Defense Perspectives November 2011, Vol. 28 No. 1</strong></p>
<div>
<p>On Dec. 7, 2011, Pearl Harbor Day, Stephen Jones arrived at his destination in Oceanside, Calif., having traveled 3,550 miles by bicycle from Martha’s Vineyard since Sep 23. Along the way, he stopped at about 160 fire stations, police departments, or emergency management offices in 17 states to provide life-saving nuclear preparedness information to first responders. In these days of electronic information overload,  the most memorable, attention-getting message could be the one delivered face to face by a man on a bicycle.<span id="more-11"></span>To interested officers, Jones demonstrated RadStickers, using radioactive sources from smoke detectors. Physicians for Civil Defense, which provided nominal financial support to help pay expenses, will donate enough RadStickers to supply all personnel in departments who request them, as soon as funding is available. Some departments do have some expensive electronic instruments, but have no funding to maintain them or to train personnel in their use. The information on the 60-second training card may be the sum total of preparedness for a nuclear detonation in most parts of the U.S. Lack of even that could cost millions of unnecessary casualties.</p>
<p>See <a href="http://firstresponderride.blogspot.com/"><strong>http://firstresponderride.blogspot.com/</strong></a> for Jones’s chronicle of his ride. During a couple days of rest in Tucson, we videotaped an interview posted at: <a href="http://www.ddponline.org/jones"><strong>www.ddponline.org/jones</strong></a>.</p>
<p><strong>A Conversation with Stephen Jones</strong></p>
<p><strong>Q: </strong>Tell us about the dragon’s head and tail on your bike. (See photo from <em>Martha’s Vineyard Times</em>,<strong> www.mvtimes.com/marthas-vineyard/article.php?id=7786</strong>.)</p>
<p><strong>A: </strong>The dragon represents the figurehead on the Skidbladnir, the mythical ship of the Norse god Freyr.</p>
<p><strong>Q: </strong>What do you carry with you?</p>
<p><strong>A: </strong>I probably carry about 35 pounds. My “office” is a little box with civil defense information and RadStickers. The old technology, the Geiger counter, is too heavy to carry, and I sent it home. I have a sleeping bag, a hammock, a tarp tent, warm clothes, a camera, a compass, a little food, vitamins, some water. I buy a road map in each state and discard it when I leave.</p>
<p><strong>Q: </strong>What about maintaining the bicycle?</p>
<p><strong>A: </strong>I get a couple of flat tires a day. I have a patch kit, a couple of spare tubes, and a floor pump. For tools, I have a screwdriver and a channel lock wrench and pliers. I also found a hunting knife along the road.</p>
<p><strong>Q: </strong>Where do you sleep?</p>
<p><strong>A: </strong>Often in a motel. If there are woods, I can string a hammock between two trees. I have slept in a culvert or under a bridge.</p>
<p><strong>Q: </strong>How are you received?</p>
<p><strong>A: </strong>The reception I get is what has kept me going. Not everyone is glad to see me, but many officers are extremely grateful for the information.</p>
<p><strong>Q: </strong>Do you just stop in when you pass a fire station?</p>
<p><strong>A: </strong>Right. If no one is there, I may leave materials. Sometimes I have been able to conveniently visit as many as 10 places in a day. In less densely populated areas, I ask around until I find out where some first responders might be. One firefighter took me around to four other stations, and one firefighter asked for materials to distribute at other stations where he works.</p>
<p><strong>Q: </strong>How do you approach them?</p>
<p><strong>A: </strong>I say, “Hi, my name’s Stephen Jones, and I’m a volunteer with Physicians for Civil Defense. We’re handing out these radiation monitors that were created by the Department of Defense to protect police and firefighters against radiological and nuclear terrorism. They were created in response to 911. We’re giving them out free; they’re not for sale.”  Then I show them how the sensors work, by turning colors. I have some with easily peeled-off fronts to test with radiation from a smoke detector.</p>
<p><strong>Q: </strong>What dose can you demonstrate?</p>
<p><strong>A: </strong>With a $4 Wal-Mart smoke detector you can get a dose of 50 rads in a minute’s exposure. That’s alpha radiation.  Then I have a regular RadSticker that’s had a smoke detector source taped to it all summer, and it is quite black. It’s important for responders to have confidence that it works, as their lives may depend on it. A report of government testing is not enough for them: one fire chief told me, “I don’t believe what the government says.”</p>
<p><strong>Q: </strong>Do they have the attitude that there’s no use preparing because nothing can be done?</p>
<p><strong>A: </strong>That’s very rare.</p>
<p><strong>Q: </strong>What level of knowledge do you see?</p>
<p><strong>A: </strong>There are a few who are well prepared; maybe 1 in 50. But the vast majority are quite open about having nothing in terms of equipment or training.</p>
<p><strong>First We Need Leadership</strong></p>
<p>Jones is now working in southern California, which he believes to be the highest risk area of the country for nuclear terrorism because of the Pacific ports. In presentations to emergency managers, he emphasizes that the biggest problem in civil defense is not lack of information or technology, but lack of leadership. He encourages these officials to lead, not simply manage.</p>
<p>While it is not as exciting or attractive as technology, information will save more lives, and first responders understand this. That’s why Jones now leads with the 60-second card (<strong>http://www.ddponline.org/storage/card.pdf</strong>), emphasizing its stand-alone utility, its ease of distribution, and the fact that it is literally flash-training for police and firefighters. He leaves six cards that can be laid out on an 8.5 by 11 sheet for ease of copying.</p>
<p>For those who are interested in more, Jones proceeds with the Kearny Fallout Meter, <em>Nuclear War Survival Skills</em>, and then the NukAlert. Most people have no clue about how to use an electronic radiation meter, but the concept of the KFM is instantly understandable. If the leaves are moving, there is significant radiation; otherwise, there isn’t.</p>
<p>Wide dissemination of nation-saving SIRAD technology is highly desirable, but will probably not happen without congressional leadership to fund large-scale manufacturing and distribution. The technology was initially developed with taxpayer funding, but the federal government has done nothing to promote it.</p>
<p>Jones believes all first responders could be supplied with the 60-second card within a few weeks. If information does not get out soon, it could be too late.</p>
<p><strong>Deeper and Deeper into Denial</strong></p>
<p>“The strategic situation in the Middle East is worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis, I think,” writes Stephen Jones. “Yet people could not be more asleep. It is normal to go deeper into denial the closer you get to what you are denying.”</p>
</div>
<p>The situation is similar with hurricanes (see July 2011 issue). Every year that a hurricane is a “near miss,” Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Long Island go into deeper denial. These regions are potential death traps because bridges and roads cannot handle a normal hurricane evacuation. Long Island could experience tens of thousands of drownings, as its preparedness exists on paper only. In downtown Providence, Rhode Island, there is a high-water mark of 17 ft on one of the buildings. In a category 3 hurricane, 29 Long Island towns would be completely submerged.</p>
<p>In the 10 years since 9/11, America has gone into a deeper sleep than before, Jones states. “Since the 2007 financial collapse, we are more like zombies, not afraid of dying because we have already died.”</p>
<p><strong>Intervention</strong></p>
<p>“The work we are doing is not academic, or reform,” Jones writes. “It is <em>intervention</em>, in an attempt to alter an otherwise disastrous outcome.” In 2009, Jones visited every congressional office with civil defense information (see January 2010 issue). Having now seen the poverty and blight of rural America from a bicycle, he compares the lavish livings of congressmen and Washington, D.C., bureaucrats to the excesses of the French aristocracy in 1789. Like the court of Louis XVI, Congress is totally out of touch with the Americans  it purports to represent.</p>
<p>Jones has concluded that it is now futile to work with policymakers. We must instead work directly with those who respond to disaster. “In spite of the somnambulism of the country, our front-line responders are awake. Police and firefighters always welcome the 60-second training cards.”</p>
<p><strong>Freight Bicycles</strong></p>
<p>During the Vietnam War, the Viet Cong moved tons of materiel through the jungle by freight bicycle. Kirk Paradise provides detailed instructions on how to rig bicycles to serve as a “wheeled porter” system in the <em>Journal of Civil Defense</em>, Issue 2, 2011. (Subscribe at <strong>www.tacda.org</strong>.) Jones says bicycles with big tires work best. Remove the pedals and the seat, and place a pole through the seat tube. You push the bicycle with the pole, and use the handlebars for steering. You could carry up to 500 lbs this way, in contrast to the 35 lbs you might be able to carry in a backpack. The bicycle would serve when roads are blocked or damaged, or fuel unavailable. Paradise suggests preparing a conversion kit for each bicycle and storing it with the load-carrying pole and your 72-hour kit and other gear. He reports being able to make the conversion within 6 minutes.</p>
<p><strong>Totally Vulnerable to EMP</strong></p>
<p>As the U.S. becomes ever more dependent on the electric grid and on electronics for both civilian and military functions, it becomes more vulnerable to attack by an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) or radiofrequency (RF) weapons. Telecommunications, banking, financial, and navigation systems could be “fried” by a turn of a switch, according to a Dept. of Defense and a communications system engineer, who spoke on condition of anonymity (F. Michael Maloof, <em>G2 Bulletin </em>9/9/11).</p>
<p>Previously, concern centered on an attack by the Soviet Union or China. The Chinese currently claim to be developing an EMP bomb for their DF-21 “carrier killer” missiles. Iran and North Korea are both producing missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead for explosion high in the atmosphere, destroying electronic systems over a wide area. A solar storm could have the same effect. Local effects could be produced by an RF weapon mounted on a pickup truck. This could be constructed from technology available at Radio Shack. One application might be to disable vehicles on bridges into Washington, D.C., or Manhattan, creating massive congestion and chaos.</p>
<p>The U.S. has neglected to devote the attention and resources needed to address the problem, and is now further hampered by the fact that engineers with needed expertise have retired. Moreover, there is no way to test protective measures now that the U.S. allows no nuclear detonations of any kind.</p>
<p>Last year, the U.S. House of Representatives passed, by unanimous consent, an act similar to the SHIELD Act, which would have required utilities to protect large transformers against EMP, but the bill died in the Senate (<em>GCOR</em>, October 2011).</p>
<p>According to a report by Bob Ferguson to the American Legislative Exchange Council on Dec 2, 2011, a special commission to Congress estimated that two-thirds to 90% of the U.S. population would be dead a year after an EMP attack shut down the electric power grid.</p>
<p>At any opportunity, you might ask candidates for political office (national, state, and local) what they plan to do about this.</p>
<p><strong>Totally Reliable Mercenaries</strong></p>
<p>According to financial analyst Richard Maybury, the U.S. soldier of the century is a mercenary, presumably Iraqi or Afghani (see January 2011 issue), and there is concern about loyalty. “No robot has ever committed treason,” he notes.</p>
<p>Robots or drones have other advantages too: low cost and low risk to personnel. Defense Secretary Robert Gates specifically exempted drones from future budget cuts.</p>
<p>The latest technology with the potential to change the nature of warfare is the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that can monitor enemy activity, intercept and disrupt communications, and launch missiles on the command of operators thousands of miles away.</p>
<p>Newly developed drones can actually be weapons themselves—miniature guided missiles. One example is the “Switchblade” (see <strong>www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/tiny-kamikaze-drone/</strong>).</p>
<p>Others want them too, and Iran is likely doing some reverse engineering on “an intruding RQ-170 American drone” downed in eastern Iran with “minimal damage.” The RQ-170 Sentinel is an unarmed stealth surveillance aircraft (<em>MailOnline </em>12/5/11).</p>
<p>Some claim that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s cyber-warfare unit hacked the drone’s flight controls.</p>
<p>Using U.S. Predator drones for intelligence, the Turkish air force allegedly killed 35 civilians, mistaking them for rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Many of the civilians might have been smuggling diesel fuel (<em>CBSNews.com </em>12/31/11).</p>
<p>Police drones will soon start appearing in American skies, predicts Jim Powell (<em>GCOR</em> Nov/Dec 2011). And private citizens have them too (<a href="http://www.diydrones.com/"><strong>http://www.diydrones.com/</strong></a>).</p>
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		<title>Deadly Lies</title>
		<link>http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2011/09/01/deadly-lies/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2011 06:41:44 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Civil Defense Perspectives September 2011, Vol. 27 No. 6 Data should have killed the anthropogenic catastrophic global warming hypothesis, along with many other radical environmentalist policies, but lies have powerful protectors—including recipients of more than $32.5 billion in federal  funding &#8230; <a href="http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2011/09/01/deadly-lies/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
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<p><strong>Civil Defense Perspectives September 2011, Vol. 27 No. 6</strong></p>
<p>Data should have killed the anthropogenic catastrophic global warming hypothesis, along with many other radical environmentalist policies, but lies have powerful protectors—including recipients of more than $32.5 billion in federal  funding for climate studies between 1989 and 2009, plus $79 billion more for climate change technology research, foreign aid, and tax breaks for “green energy” (PFW-Tucson, September 2011).<span id="more-16"></span><strong>The BEST Study</strong></p>
<p>Published shortly before the 2011 climate summit in Durban, South Africa (coincidentally?), the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project shows a 1.6 °F temperature rise between 1950 (a record-cold year) and 2000. Its director, reputed skeptic Richard Muller, stated that the study “proved that you shouldn’t be a skeptic, at least not any longer.” The <em>Washington Post </em>wrote that the BEST study had “settled the climate change debate” and that any remaining skeptic was a “cynical fraud.”</p>
<p>Prof. Muller himself, however, as Dr. Fred Singer points out,  emphasizes that the BEST data are only from land (30% of earth’s surface), and from poorly distributed sites mostly in the U.S. and western Europe. He admits that 70% of the U.S. stations are poorly sited, and others are probably worse. Furthermore, he disclaims knowledge of the cause of the warming.</p>
<p>The second named author of the BEST papers, Judith Curry, chairman of the Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, said her colleagues appear to be trying to “hide the decline” in an affair comparable to the Climategate scandal (<em>Mail on Sunday </em>10/30/11).</p>
<p>“There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,” she said. Note that the BEST graph stops in 2000.</p>
<p>BEST and the <em>WP</em> present a graph with a compressed 200-year x-axis, and a stretched y-axis to accentuate differences. Plotting monthly data from BEST’s own archives for 2001–2010 gives “a statistically perfect straight line of zero gradient,” writes David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (<em>CCNet Special </em>10/30/11). Muller states that the lack of recent warming might be from a change in ocean oscillations. If so, then in another phase these oscillations would intensify the warming—yet the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has dismissed ocean oscillations as a possible cause of warming (<em>The Week That Was</em> 11/5/11, see <strong>www.sepp.org</strong>).</p>
<p><strong>Climategate II</strong></p>
<p>Another leak of emails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia shows that the “team” largely responsible for preparing the IPCC report was very aware that the warming of the troposphere above the tropics—the distinct human fingerprint—was not occurring as predicted by models. Ben Santer et al. apparently tried to cover up the disparity by expanding error bars of measurements (<em>TWTW</em> 11/26/11).</p>
<p>Some 5,300 emails were released this time, and reportedly there are more than 200,000 encrypted behind a very difficult-to-crack code (ibid.).</p>
<p>Dr. Singer suggests it is a good time to re-read John Brignell’s 2009 essay, <strong>www.numberwatch.co.uk/lying.htm</strong>:</p>
<p><strong>How We Know They Are Lying</strong></p>
<p>For help in distinguishing those who are deliberately lying from those who are merely deluded, Brignell quotes fictional detective M. Maigret: “The clever ones always leave a clue.”</p>
<p>“We can identify the ‘scientists’ who habitually lie by the fact that they produce, on time, results that are never unexpected and always conform to the establishment-sponsored theory,” writes Brignell. “Real science is never that predictable.”</p>
<p>Until recent times, there was no circumstance in science in which a deliberate falsehood was acceptable. That has changed with the rise of authoritarian government and monopoly of funding—and the global warming religion. The clues include:</p>
<p><strong>Secrecy</strong>. British “researchers” refused to yield up their calculations to scrutiny on the grounds that “you only want to criticize.” Albert Einstein, in contrast, passed his results onto Eddington so that a critical test could be devised.</p>
<p><strong>Rewriting the past.</strong> Astute observers noticed that historical temperatures were changing, almost always upward.</p>
<p><strong>Ratchet reporting</strong> (overplaying heat waves, barely mentioning record cold) and outright <strong>censorship.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Mass Killing</strong></p>
<p>The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is reportedly being implemented through brute force.</p>
<p>In Honduras, 23 farmers were allegedly murdered when they tried to recover land they claimed had been illegally sold to palm oil plantations to obtain carbon credits to use in the ETS. Several members of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) executive board reported feeling “personally distressed,” but since the deaths occurred after the stakeholder consultations had been held, they were powerless to block project registrations. An EU official said that including human rights abuses in CDM assessments would be “very difficult.”</p>
<p>“If this really is a direct consequence of Europe’s climate policies then I would like to send my sincere apologies to the people of Honduras,” said Bas Eikhout, a Green member of the European parliament (MEP) (<em>CCNet</em> 10/2/11).</p>
<p>In Uganda, armed troops killed children and burned houses to the ground in the process of seizing land for reforestation. Troops were acting on behalf of New Forests Company, a British carbon trading company backed by the World Bank. The government and company said “the settlers were illegal and evicted for good cause: to protect the environment and help fight global warming.” Some 20,000 people have been “resettled”—in a “peaceful, voluntary” way (<em>NY Times </em>9/23/11).</p>
<p>Harder to count are the lives and opportunities lost because of the soft tyranny of the regulatory regime being imposed throughout the world, based on pseudo-scientific fraud.</p>
<p><strong>The Undead Persist</strong></p>
<p>“Failures of climate models have failed to kill climate alarmism,” writes Howard Hayden. “Like Bram Stoker’s Count Dracula, the ‘climate change’ scare sucks the blood out of civilization, and like Count Dracula, ‘climate theory’ is undead because it does not exist” (<em>The Energy Advocate</em>, October 2011).</p>
<p><strong>Historical Precedent</strong></p>
</div>
<p>“James Hansen, notorious among global warming critics as a ruthless fudger of data,” writes Brignell, “blew the gaff in the euphoria of the Green takeover in the USA, by admitting that the main issue was the redistribution of wealth.”</p>
<p>Dr. Lawrence Huntoon writes that we should pause to remember the 78th anniversary of the Holodomor, the Soviet-imposed famine of 1932-1933. “In the ‘occupy’ movement of the time, the Bolsheviks, including Stalin, declared that they were going to take from the rich, and by the way kill them, so that wealth could be redistributed to create a workers’ paradise.”</p>
<p>On August 7, 1932, the Law of Spikelets declared that food was “socialist property.” Peasants caught eating food were deemed guilty of theft of socialist property and were subject to the death penalty. Starvation was used as a weapon of mass destruction against Ukrainians who wanted to preserve their national identity. “They threw food in the ocean, but wouldn’t give it to the people,” writes Jay Tokasz (<em>Buffalo News </em>11/20/11).</p>
<p>Among the famine deniers were French Prime Minister Edouard Herriot and British journalist Walter Duranty, who was Moscow bureau chief for the <em>NY Times</em>. In 2003, the Pulitzer Prize Board decided not to revoke Duranty’s 1932 Pulitzer Prize, stating that there was no “clear and convincing evidence of deliberate deception,” and the specific articles submitted for the prize were not about the famine. Duranty had traveled the countryside and was a first-hand witness to the atrocities that claimed 10 million human victims.</p>
<p><strong>Poor People Starved to Grow Auto Fuel</strong></p>
<p>This year, for the first time, American farmers will harvest more corn for ethanol than for feed. In Europe, 50% of rapeseed production is                 going into biofuel, along with 18% of the world’s sugar. While an increase in the price of food is an annoyance in the U.S., in places where people spend 80% of their income on food, hundreds of millions go hungry. And some revolt.</p>
<p>“What we call today the Arab Spring really started as a protest against ever-increasing food prices,” stated Nestlé’s CEO Peter Brabeck-Letmathe (<em>WSJ</em> 9/3/11).</p>
<p>Politicians claim they want to replace 20% of the energy market through the food market. The energy market, however, is 20 times the size of the food market, in terms of calories, stated Brabeck-Lemanthe (ibid.).</p>
<p>Allocating several thousand hectares of land in Swaziland to ethanol production while the country was in the grip of a famine was called a “crime against humanity” (<em>CCNet</em> 9/23/11).</p>
<p><strong>Bird Deaths</strong></p>
<p>In North Dakota, 28 dead migratory birds were found near waste oil lagoons. Continental Resources is accused of violating the 1918 Migratory Bird Treaty Act because it killed one Phoebe’s Say, a crime punishable by a $15,000 fine and up to 6 months in prison.  Some 440,000 birds are killed each year by wind turbines, but there have been no federal prosecutions (<em>WSJ</em> 9/29/11).</p>
<p>Near Pittsburgh, 35 wind turbines have to be shut down at night because an endangered bat was found dead near one of them. The mode of death is most likely encountering an air pressure drop that causes the lungs to explode. When hibernation season starts, turbines may begin to turn again (AP 10/18/11).</p>
<p><strong>Heating Versus Eating</strong></p>
<p>In London, more than one in four people are struggling to pay their energy costs as prices rise and the fuel poverty allowance is cut. Between 2004 and 2009, domestic energy prices increased by more than 75%, and gas prices by more than 122%. “For a lot of pensioners, you either heat or you eat,” said George Durack of the Islington Pensioners’ Forum. “Elderly people could die if something is not done” (<em>CCNet</em> 9/20/11).</p>
<p><strong>Green Subsidies a “Disgrace”</strong></p>
<p>While the British government is committed to a target of generating 15% of its energy from renewable sources (an increase from 6.6% now), Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, articulated what many ordinary people think about wind farms: He called them a “disgrace.” More valuable than the inefficient, unreliable power the turbines generate are the Renewable Obligations Certificates that wind farm speculators can sell (<em>CCNet</em> 11/21/11).</p>
<p>Europe’s “unsustainable and chaotic green energy policy” is a lose-lose proposition for all except financial players, writes Andrew McKillop (<em>CCNet</em> 9/20/11). Owing to lack of distribution capability, wind power is already overcapacity at times of peak output, and the excess must simply be shed or wasted.</p>
<p><strong>Corruption and Hidden Agendas</strong></p>
<p>It appears that the BBC “has relentlessly promoted the global warming orthodoxy as a pressure group in its own right,” writes Christopher Booker (<em>Sunday Telegraph </em>11/20/11). Among the sources of improper sponsorship is Envirotrade, which is cashing in on selling “carbon offsets.”</p>
<p>Climategate II emails show Hockey Stick inventor Michael Mann casting about for ways to smear Steve McIntyre (<em>WSJ</em> 11/28/11). Meanwhile, it is revealed that alarmist-in-chief James Hansen “forgot” to report $1.6 million in outside income, as required by government contracts (<strong>http://tinyurl.com/7xcvdxy</strong>).</p>
<p>A scathing exposé reveals that the IPCC has pervasive ties with green activists, and that its supposedly authoritative work relies to a large extent on graduate students with little experience in their field. In her book <em>The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World’s Top Climate Expert</em>, Canadian freelancer Donna Lafromboise documents how the “reviewers” of the IPCC report are blocked, ignored, or even threatened if they ask for data to back up a claim. An audit of the 2007 IPCC report found that one-third of the 18,531 citations were from non-peer-reviewed literature, including activist reports and even press releases.</p>
<p><strong>Aborting Jobs</strong></p>
<p>The discovery of some 200 trillion cu ft of shale gas beneath northwest England is being greeted with—dismay. Cheap, abundant gas threatens the frail, heavily subsidized “green” energy sector—and “carbon dioxide goals.” England may follow the French in banning the use of hydraulic fracturing (“frocking”). This would abort a Canadian or North Dakota style “jobs gusher” that could create new opportunities or prevent the loss of energy-intensive industries. Rio Tinto Alcan is closing its Northumberland plant, and steel giant Tata says new investment is threatened by “green” policies (<em>Energy Tribune </em>11/23/11).</p>
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		<title>Arizona Radiation Net Complete</title>
		<link>http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2009/01/01/arizona-radiation-net-complete/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Jan 2009 18:16:46 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Civil Defense Perspectives January 2009, Vol. 25 No. 2 When Stephen Jones asked Arizona firefighters whether they had a plan for nuclear attack, they answered, “No.” Any instruments for measuring radiation? With few exceptions: “No.” That is no longer the &#8230; <a href="http://www.physiciansforcivildefense.org/2009/01/01/arizona-radiation-net-complete/">Continue reading <span class="meta-nav">&#8594;</span></a>]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Civil Defense Perspectives January 2009, <strong>Vol. 25 No. 2</strong></strong></p>
<p>When Stephen Jones asked Arizona firefighters whether they had a plan for nuclear attack, they answered, “No.” Any instruments for measuring radiation? With few exceptions: “No.” That is no longer the situation in Arizona–in any jurisdiction that lacks an obstructive bureaucracy.<span id="more-24"></span>The latest government Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation, released Jan 19, 2009, confirms that local jurisdictions will be on their own: “There will be no significant Federal response at the scene for 24 hours and the full extent of Federal assets will not be available for up to 72 hours” (Homeland Security Council Interagency Policy Coordination Subcommittee for Preparedness &amp; Response to Radiological and Nuclear Threats).</p>
<p>Yet virtually all lifesaving measures will have to be undertaken immediately. And there is no indication in the new Administraton&#8217;s Homeland Security agenda of new federal assets to respond to nuclear detonation–only aspirations for a “nuclear-free world.”</p>
<p>Thus, Physicians for Civil Defense has created a radiological monitoring net covering the state of Arizona, a model that can be emulated throughout the U.S. It rests on the back-up default plan for situations like now, in which there is no plan–the situation foreseen by visionaries like Cresson Kearny and Conrad Chester, who created and tested the expedient <em>Nuclear War Survival Skills</em> (<em>NWSS</em>) methods, such as the KFM (Kearny fallout meter), for use by ordinary Americans.</p>
<p><strong>The Arizona <em>Nuclear War Survival Skills</em> Tour</strong></p>
<p>Our crew–Stephen Jones, Kevin McDonald, and Logan Connor–drove 5,000 miles, visited about 145 fire stations, photographed more than 400 firefighters with <em>NWSS</em>, sent press releases to 50 newspapers, and did personal interviews with 20 reporters. Expecting to have many doors slammed in their faces, this happened only once outside major urban areas; response was overwhelmingly positive. Our volunteers were asked on the spot to participate in ongoing training sessions, and even to return to do a special session.</p>
<p>The message is simple and compelling: <strong><em>“It works. You can do it.”</em></strong> Firefighters instantly connected with Steve&#8217;s teaching tool: an Indian weather stone. The stone hangs from a frame by a leather strip, with instructions: “If the stone is wet, it&#8217;s raining. If the stone is white, it&#8217;s snowing. If the stone is moving, the wind is blowing.”</p>
<p>If the leaves of the KFM are moving together, there&#8217;s radiation. If they&#8217;re not moving, there is no radiation danger.</p>
<p>Radiation becomes an understandable, easily measurable natural phenomenon, rather than a terrifying demon.</p>
<p>The first 35 pages of the manual explain nuclear weapons effects, essential protective measures, and the radiation decay curve (7/10 rule). Devastating as nuclear weapons are, people outside the lethal zone can survive–<strong><em>if they do not panic</em></strong>.</p>
<p>The Emergency Nuclear Attack Kit provided to each jurisdiction contains: the manual (<em>NWSS</em>), a factory-made KFM stored in a small paint can with extra silica gel, a plexiglass charging device, and instructions for building a KFM; a zip-lock bag with everything needed to make a KFM except the tin can; and a NukAlert with instruction manual. Firefighters are asked to download and print out their own copies of <em>NWSS</em>.</p>
<p>Steve Jones and Jane Orient previously distributed NukAlerts to a number of fire districts in Arizona, as well as many in other states who requested them. For two years now, the Marana fire district has had a NukAlert on a key chain in every engine–and firefighters are proud to show them. We concluded, however, that a change in strategy is needed.</p>
<p>The foundation of the plan has to be <em>NWSS</em>. There are not enough NukAlerts–or other comparable electronic instruments–in existence to supply the need, and it will be impossible to manufacture enough quickly. The KFM is America&#8217;s main instrument. NukAlerts complement the KFM and will do the most good in the hands of first responders who are part of a regional monitoring net. Firefighters in Yuma can now call Window Rock, San Luis, or any other Arizona town and find out the radiation level on the ground.</p>
<p>Videographer Kevin McDonald created slide shows of the Arizona tour and videotapes of training sessions, which can be viewed at <strong>www.physiciansforcivildefense.org</strong>. You can also access them on <strong>www.YouTube.com</strong>. Search on “Physicians for Civil Defense” or “roadman911.” A long-range project is to incorporate these and other materials into a civil defense documentary for wide distribution.</p>
<p>The total cost of the 5-week tour was about $100,000, if one considers retail cost of the donated materials. We thank KI4U for NukAlerts, the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine for the <em>NWSS</em> manuals, KI4U and Doctors for Disaster Preparedness for cash donations, and others.</p>
<p>­</p>
<p><strong>What Next?</strong></p>
<p>There are about 23,000 jurisdictions in the U.S. small enough to be receptive to receiving a <em>NWSS</em> emergency kit. It would cost from $8 million to $12 million to supply each with a kit, depending on distribution method. We would like to start by buying up the existing inventory of KFMs and NukAlerts, at a price that would generate new production, so that we could supply a kit to every jurisdiction that requested one for firefighters, emergency managers, or law enforcement. We intend to start there, to the extent that funds are donated.</p>
<p>In the meantime, we will refine our tools to improve the self-training nature of the program. Americans need to make their own KFMs–the kit is a model and an incentive.</p>
<p>America should have a real civil defense program, with well-stocked blast shelters. <em>NWSS</em> could eventually spark this, or at least a revival of a shelter program like that in Huntsville, Alabama. In the meantime, it is the only feasible starting point that we can see. It could save millions directly, and indirectly by helping to keep 5 million essential workers on the job.</p>
<p>A small investment in information and simple technology could potentially mean the ability of America to recover from a devastating, increasingly likely nuclear blow. The more kits there are in your region, the safer your family is. Contact us if you want to help us supply your state or area: 520.325.2689.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>50% Chance of Nuclear Detonation?</strong></p>
<p>A nuclear terrorist attack on the U.S. is a better than even bet in the next 10 years, stated Graham Allison, a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense. The illicit economy for narcotics and illegal alien trafficking has built up a vast infrastructure that could be exploited to deliver a nuclear weapon. Former president Bush, vice president Cheney, and the 9/11 Commis­sion all concluded that a nuclear terrorist attack was not only the nation&#8217;s worst nightmare, but a virtual inevitability.</p>
<p>A study by the Center for Mass Destruction Defense at the University of Georgia concluded that a concerted effort to teach civilians what to do could save countless lives (<em>World NetDaily</em> 7/6/07).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Russia Combat Ready</strong></p>
<p>According to President Dmitry Medvedev, speaking to the Federal Assembly Nov 5, “Our Armed Forces have been restored to combat potential to a considerable degree.” Three Russian missile regiments will not be disbanded as previously decided; the Iskander missile system will be deployed to Kaliningrad to “neutralize” NATO deployment of ABMs in Poland; and ABM bases will be electronically jammed (J.R. Nyquist, <em>Financial Sense.com</em> 11/14/08).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>A Credible Deterrent?</strong></p>
<p>The week before the November 2008 election, defense secretary Robert Gates called for putting the Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) program into operation, noting that the nation&#8217;s current arsenal–mostly produced in the 1970s and 1980s–may be becoming unreliable. This appears to be at odds with Obama&#8217;s promise to develop “no new nuclear weapons” (<em>Time</em> 1/26/09).</p>
<p>Recent U.S. incidents have focused attention on the neglect of nuclear forces, and a lack of understanding of nuclear deterrence at the Pentagon. “If adversaries believe the U.S. deterrent is weak, they might be tempted to use nukes against us or threaten to do so” (<em>Wall St J</em> 1/24-25/09). In addition, former Defense Secretary James Schlesinger notes that if the 30-plus countries relying on the U.S. nuclear umbrella lose confidence, some might decide to acquire their own nuclear arsenal. That&#8217;s precisely the opposite of the nuclear-free-world argument that others would disarm if the U.S. did so.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Food Storage Tips</strong></p>
<p>Sealing food in Mylar bags with oxygen absorbers for long-term storage has had disappointing results because the bags tend to spring leaks–or rodents might gnaw a hole in them. Thus it is best to place your bags in a plastic bucket with a lid. The use of an iron to seal the bag is shown at <strong>www.yout­ube. com/watch?v=fk9b0dAtJ80</strong>. Note that wheat and beans stored in this way will be edible long term but <em>will not sprout</em>.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>A Sign of Hard Times</strong></p>
<p>An estimated 40,000 people came to a Colorado family farm on a single day to collect free potatoes, carrots, and leeks. The family decided to give away produce because they had a lot left over after the fall festival, and any day a deep freeze could kill it off. Between 5,000 and 10,000 people had been expected, spread out over several days (<em>Denver Post</em> 11/23/08).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>A Response to a Global Warmist</strong></p>
<p>“Reflections” on an interview with Jonathan Overpeck, KUAT, <em>Arizona Illustrated</em>, Jan 20, 2009</p>
<p>The global warming scare will change your life if the alarmists prevail. They demand policies that would shut down half the electricity in the United States. Coal-generated power cannot be replaced by windmills and solar panels, no matter how much of our land we carpet with these expensive eyesores and their transmission lines.</p>
<p>To force you to reduce your “carbon footprint,” the UN wants the power to keep you from driving your car, heating or cooling your home, or even having a baby. Enron-style cap-and-trade schemes, or a carbon tax, would enrich tax collectors and companies like Al Gore’s–and drive most Americans into poverty. These are not modest, sensible insurance policies; these are economy-wrecking, freedom-ending, radical schemes to empower tyrannical world government.</p>
<p>Do we have to do it to save the Planet? The idea that human beings can influence climate is not new. In the Middle Ages, thousands of women were burned at the stake as witches to protect against bad weather. Now we don’t have witches but we do have Al Gore’s movie showing a cartoon of wicked greenhouse gas demons beating up on poor Mr. Sunbeam.</p>
<p>The earth is warmer now than in 1776, and the temperature is now close to the 3,000-year average. The weather was much nicer during the Medieval Warm Period, when vineyards thrived in England.</p>
<p>Human use of coal, oil, and natural gas has increased steadily since around 1900, but the slope of the temperature curve since 1776 hasn’t changed. There have been fluctuations in the temperature curve, and those correlate very well not with CO2, but with solar activity.</p>
<p>CO2 is a very weak greenhouse gas. Its possible effect on temperature is negligible. The important effect of the increased level in the atmosphere is that the Earth is significantly greener. CO2 is Nature’s recycling molecule. It is plant food. Restricting CO2 means starving plants, and thus animals and human beings.</p>
<p>Dr. Overpeck and his UN IPCC colleagues didn’t predict that global warming would take a break starting around 1998. But the snow in Baghdad and other record lows are “just weather,” they say. We should still trust their computer models: Catastrophic warming will soon resume, unless we repent and stop using affordable, available fuels.</p>
<p>Some 32,000 American scientists, plus increasing numbers of former IPCC scientists disagree with Gore and Overpeck. The global warmers’ answer is that if you disagree with them, you’re not really a scientist. Pay no attention to the evidence–or to the man behind the curtain, they say: just believe in the Wizard. Jane M. Orient, M.D.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Reflections on Terrorism in Mumbai</strong></p>
<p>From a posting by Butler Shaffer (<a href="http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog"><em>LewRockwell.com/blog</em></a>, 11/30/08), “How Gun Control Laws Contributed to the Mum-bai Slaughter”: After the mutiny of 1857, the British systematically disarmed the Indian masses and destroyed the means of local firearm production. Gandhi wrote: “Among the&#8230;misdeeds of the British rule in India, history will look upon the Act depriving a whole nation of arms as the blackest.” Said the Dalai Lama: “If someone has a gun and is trying to kill you, it would be reasonable to shoot back with your own gun.”</p>
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