Muslim countries can be an existential threat to Israel and pose a terrorist threat throughout the world—because of petrodollars. But the Middle East could “go back to being an obscure backwater,” as predicted by Lawrence Solomon (Financial Post  3/21/12), if the rest of the world develops its own oil.

All told, Solomon writes, “some 38 countries in every continent in the world have 4.8 trillion barrels of shale oil, making oil a ubiquitous commodity that gives every region of the world the wherewithal to be energy self-sufficient.” Israel has some 250 billion barrels in one basin near Jerusalem, an amount comparable to Saudi Arabia’s reserves, he writes.

The concept of “Peak Oil”—the idea that the world is running out of “fossil fuel”—was the first rationale for global energy rationing, to be followed by the threat of a new ice age and then by global warming. And it still lurks, like the Undead. It is the foundation for the UK’s energy policy, which assumed that natural gas was insecure, limited, and therefore expensive enough to make every other generation technology competitive, writes Nick Grealy (No Hot Air 9/22/11, cited by CCNet 9/22/11).

Estimates of the potential of shale gas are not just game-changing, he says, but jaw-dropping, at least to the £2,000 per day energy consultants who consistently denied it while they were “living in a bubble of self-reinforcement.”

Oil and Gas Resources

When the Obama Administration says that the U.S. has only 20 billion barrels of oil in “proven” reserves, that is the amount recoverable from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions. It excludes areas that the U.S. federal government has declared off limits, such as the Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR),  federal waters off the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, about 45% of the Gulf of Mexico, and federal lands in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. According to the Institute for Energy Research, the U.S. has more than 1.4 trillion barrels recoverable with existing technology; Saudi Arabia has 260 billion (Washington Times 3/19/12).

The Bakken Shale (being tapped in North Dakota) was estimated to have only 150 million “technically recoverable barrels of oil” in 1995. By April 2008, the estimate had increased to 4 billion, and in 2010 to 8 billion. As technology advances, recoverable oil there could eventually exceed 500 billion barrels (WSJ 3/11/12, cited by TWTW 3/17/12, www.sepp.org).

China is thought to have 30 trillion cubic meters of recoverable shale gas, the largest repository of shale gas in the world (WSJ 3/16/12, TWTW 3/17/12).

Blackpool in northwest England has some 5.6 trillion cubic meters of natural gas in shale rock, more than in Iraq’s whole reserves, enough to supply the whole of the UK’s gas needs for 5 decades, according Cuadrilla Resources Ltd. (CCNet 1/11/12).

An Existential Threat to Green Dogma

Shale gas could bring about Britain’s “second energy revolution” and end the nation’s economic woes. If unchecked, however, the UK’s “dash for gas” would “endanger our carbon dioxide goals,” said then-energy and climate change secretary Chris Huhne. It has reduced the cost of natural gas to less than $3 per thousand cubic feet (or million BTU) from a peak of $8 a few years ago—and makes windmills seem unaffordable.  Recovery depends on the use of hydraulic fracking, and environmental activists are calling on the UK to follow the lead of France in imposing a moratorium on fracking (WSJ 9/23/11).

The European Commission is studying whether current EU environmental laws apply to shale gas production (Fox Business News 9/22/11, cited by CCNet 9/23/11).

The Sierra Club and other environmental pressure groups are redoubling efforts to “stop fracking in its tracks.” Fortunately, writes Paul Driessen, much of U.S. shale gas is on private land, where it can’t be easily locked up by federal diktat (CFACT 3/29/12, http://tinyurl.com/7kmczrg). Also, in the U.S. private landowners can profit from developing this resource.

What Is “Fracking”?

Horizontal drilling with hydraulic fracturing has been used by petroleum engineers since the 1950s to extract both petroleum   and natural gas.  After a well is drilled, a wire with explosive charges is dropped into it to create fissures in the rock. Water, chemicals, and sand are pumped in under pressure to open channels and keep them open, so gas can flow out when the fluid is pumped out (http://tinyurl.com/6oytaum).

Environmentalists describe fracking as “reckless,” “dangerous,” and “poisonous,” and demand that shale gas development be stopped for further study of potential water pollution and seismic effects. Moratoria are in effect in Maryland, New York, and other states.

In fact, drilling and fracking have been carefully regulated by states for decades, Driessen writes (op. cit.).  There has never been a confirmed case of water pollution due to fracking. Rare instances of methane entering ground water are not from fracking but from failure of well integrity and can occur with water wells. Almost all the chemicals used today are also used in foods or cosmetics. The reported “earthquakes” have been barely detectable tremors near fracking sites.

According to Mike Stephenson, head of energy science at the British Geological Survey, the risk of earthquakes is low, and there are scientific tools to detect problems. Earthquakes stronger than 3.3 on the Richter scale, which typically cause no property damage, are unlikely, and most would be much weaker. The seismicity of coal mining is remarkably similar (Kari Lundgren, Bloomberg 1/10/12. CCNet 1/11/12).

Built on a Fault

The environmentalist agenda threatens earth-shaking consequences to Western civilization: war for oil, subservience to a hostile Russian regime threatening to cut off the gas supply,  societal upheaval from economic chaos. Apocalyptic scares—climate change, massive earthquakes, radiation peril—have led to suicidal policy. The agenda itself, however, built on fantasy, bad science, even outright lies, could be brought down by reality.  The prospect of affordable energy is fracturing the green foundation.

Training for Propagandists

The University of East Anglia (UEA), heart of the Climategate, is offering a new postgraduate course aimed at bringing together “researchers in the environmental sciences, philosophy, history and literature to develop new ways of thinking about environmental change and social transitions.” The cost: £5,000 for UK students, and £11,000 for overseas students. UEA already runs a project in “eco poetry” designed to “stimulate and strengthen children’s environmental awareness.”

“The dividing line between creative writing and climate science—sometimes thin—has been triumphantly dissolved, writes Andrew Orlowski (Register 4/2/12, cited in CCNet 4/3/11).

Numbers

• $6.8 million: fine paid by motor fuel suppliers for not using cellulosic biofuel that doesn’t exist (NYT 1/9/12).
• 80%: percentage of DOE loans for “green” energy that went to Obama backers (http://tinyurl.com/7urhqmv).
• $330 billion of $560 billion: portion of U.S. trade deficit for buying imported crude oil (TWTW 3/31/12, www.sepp.org).
• £1.2 million: amount paid to wind farm in UK to not produce electricity for 8.5 h, to avoid overloading the network during high winds; 10 times the value of the electricity that could have been produced (Sunday Telegraph 9/18/11).
• $17 billion: amount Chinese companies invested since 2010 in North American oil sands ventures (TWTW 3/17/12).
• > $2 billion: 2011 revenue of top environmentalist charities.
• $26.67 per gallon: amount U.S. Navy pays for biofuel, while jet fuel costs less than $4/gal (TWTW 12/31/11).
• > $1 trillion: cost of EPA regulations scheduled to take effect in the next few years, destroying hundreds of thousands of jobs (Texas Public Policy Foundation, February 2012).
• 8.7%: the percentage of name-plate capacity that is actually available in summer from wind turbines. During peak hour, available capacity may be as little as 1% (TWTW 2/11/12).
• 3 years: enough to build Trans-Alaska Pipeline; not enough for Obama to study Keystone proposal (TWTW 1/21/12).

Home Solar Schemes

Now being widely advertised, tempting deals for roof-top solar systems may be a way to subsidize Wall Street to buy Chinese solar panels, writes T. J. Rodgers (WSJ 12/8/11).

Installation is free—all you have to do is “sign a contract and write a check” (go.solarcity.com). The homeowner gives up the 30% federal tax credit and the depreciation, and agrees to buy power long-term from the limited liability company at just below market rates. After the 10-year payback, profits begin to roll in—to the LLC. As the end of the 20-year lifetime nears, a bank has likely locked in long-term profits and sold the LLC in a “solar-backed security.” Wall Street understands the time value of money; the federal government and consumer do not. By the way, one of the largest installers, SolarCity, uses the LLC strategy and buys its solar panels from the low-cost Chinese supplier, Yingli. Chinese manufacturers have been accused of “dumping” in the U.S.; a 4.73% tariff has been imposed, which is smaller than expected. SolarCity was denied a DOE loan guarantee.

Land Use Requirements

With 1960s’ productivity, it would have taken 8 billion acres to feed the world population in 1998, instead of  3.7 billion, states Indur Goklany. The saving of 4.3 billion acres is about the area of South America. Organic farming produces 29% less corn and 39% less wheat than conventional methods (WSJ 1/18/12).

A Real Stimulus

Against a background of four decades of decline, there has recently been a small increase in domestic production of petroleum (Energy Advocate, February 2012). More than 150,000 new oil and gas jobs have been added over the past 5 years. Some $145 billion will be spent drilling and completing new gas wells this year, up from $13 billion in 2000 (WSJ 2/2/12). Numerous sand mines are opening up to support the drilling. And manufacturing industries, including steelmakers, are returning to take advantage of lower energy costs.

Subsidies

Industries favored by the green lobby receive subsidies in the form of cash handouts. The “subsidy” received by the oil industry is a “tax subsidy,” that is tax deductions for the costs of doing business, most of which are also available to other industries. The effective tax rate (taxes as a share of net income) was 41% for oil and gas companies in 2010, compared with 26% for other manufacturers on the S&P Industrial index, and, before the 2009 Obama-Pelosi stimulus, -164% for wind and -249% for solar-thermal.  That is, the more power these alternatives generate, the more the taxpayer pays (WSJ 3/14/12, TWTW 3/17/12).

The Gulf Washing Machine

The rapid cleansing of the Gulf after the Deepwater Horizon oil spill resulted from a fortuitous combination of ravenous bacteria, ocean currents, and local topography. Because the Gulf is bounded on three sides by land, currents don’t flow in one direction but slosh around as if trapped in a washing machine. The population of bacteria near the well grew, then was swept away by currents. But when the water circled back, still loaded with hungry bacteria, they mopped up another round of hydrocarbons, with the population increasing on every cycle (WSJ 1/10/12).

River on Fire—in 1783

Some believe that without the EPA, pollution would be so bad that rivers would catch fire. In fact, it has long been known that naturally occurring methane from river beds can be set aflame, and in 1783, Thomas Paine and George Washington decided to try an experiment. The results were published in 1819 (see http://sppiblog.org/news/6881):

“The muddy bottom of rivers contains great quantities of impure and often inflammable air (carbureted hydrogen gas), injurious to life; and which remains entangled in the mud till let loose from thence by some accident. This air is produced by the dissolution and decomposition of any combustible matter falling into the water and sinking into the mud….” The “research team” disturbed the mud with poles, then set the gas alight.

The Kyoto Protocol is due to expire in 2012, and the 17th annual Conference of Parties (COP-17) in Durban, South Africa,  which was supposed to extend it, appears to have reduced it to an empty shell.

After two weeks of partying at luxury hotels, some 10,000 delegates left with an agreement to meet again, writes Benny Peiser (CCNet 12/14/11). The BASIC countries—Brazil, South Africa, India, and China—achieved their goal of delaying any agreement on a replacement for Kyoto until at least 2015, and any actual actions to cut emissions until at least 2020.

India’s environment minister Jayanti Nataraj demanded to know: “How do I give a blank check signing away the livelihood rights of 1.2 billion members of our population?”

Within days after Durban, Canada became the first country to exercise its legal right to withdraw from Kyoto, which “could jeopardize any gains made at the Durban meeting,” according to an Indian official (India Today 12/14/11).

Withdrawing would save Canada about $14 billion in penalties for failing to meet its Kyoto target of reducing greenhouse gases by 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020.

According to Canada’s environment minister Peter Kent, “to meet the targets under Kyoto for 2012 would be the equivalent of either removing every car, truck, ATV, tractor, ambulance, police car and vehicle of every kind from Canadian roads or closing down the entire…agricultural sector and cutting heat to every home, office, hospital, factory and building in Canada” (ibid.).

Peace for All Time?

The objective is world government, writes Lord Christopher Monckton, who arrived at the meeting by parachute (http://tinyurl.com/7nsrb64), after initially being excluded. Monckton called attention to the 1,000 permanent bureaucracies established since Cancun, and the now 138-page draft treaty (http://tinyurl.com/6ocelap).

The Canute-like goal is to limit “global warming” to 1 °C above pre-industrial levels, which would “take us halfway back to the last Ice Age.” The CO₂ concentration target could be as low as 300 ppmv CO₂ equivalent, including all greenhouse gases, compared with current 560 ppmv. This implies reducing CO₂  itself to 210 ppmv, the level at which plants begin to die.

The proposed treaty (http://tinyurl.com/6r5ytu8) would disband military forces: “…all Parties shall cease all destructive activities that contribute to climate change, in particular the activities of warfare, production of materials and services that support warfare, and to divert associated financial resources and investments into the shared global effort to combat a common enemy: climate change” [§81].

The amount of funds to be made available annually to the developing Parties “shall be equivalent to the budget that developed countries spend on defence, security, and warfare” [§47].

The UN would be the global army and police. An “International Climate Court of Justice” would enforce the treaty. This kangaroo court would require Annex 1 (Western) countries to pay ever larger sums to UN bureaucrats, who would distribute the money as they saw fit. “Developing” countries could not be brought before the Court, no matter what.

Monckton predicted that eco-lunatics would send in troops to shut down entire industries for noncompliance with their UN treaty. He stated that they had sent goons into certain regions of Uganda, killed off the population, and declared the areas “carbon-free zones” (Ileana Johnson Paugh, Canada Free Press 12/13/11, http://tinyurl.com/7cyo6ss).

Starting in 2013/14, the world government will require extensive reports from Western nations on “greenhouse-gas emission inventories” and on financial contributions, which are viewed as reparations for climate crimes, to aid climate mitigation efforts by Third-World countries. Monckton notes that “the inexorable increase in compulsory reporting was one of the mechanisms by which the unelected Kommissars of the anti-democratic European Union acquired absolute power over the member states.” EU advisors, he states, have been coaching the UN in the use of similar techniques to centralize global power.

De-railing the Train

A few things happened on the way to the climate apocalypse. First, the financial apocalypse: “The notion that rich (or formerly rich) countries are going to ship $100 billion every year to the Micronesias of the world is risible, especially after they have spent it all on Greece” (Bret Stephens, WSJ 11/29/11).

Then there was Climategate, with its “watered-down” predictions. A new religion “cannot easily survive more than a few ounces of self-doubt” (ibid., quoted in TWTW 12/3/11). “Climategate did for the global warming controversy what the Pentagon Papers did for the Vietnam War 40 years ago. It changed the narrative decisively.” writes Steven Hayward (Weekly Standard 12/12/11). And the sequel “is as ugly as the original.”

A handful of dubious messages might be explained by “context,” he writes. “But they are so numerous that it doesn’t require an advanced degree in pattern recognition to make out that these emails constitute not just a ‘smoking gun’ of scientific bias, but a belching howitzer.” More so than the 2009 batch, “these emails make clear the close collaboration between the leading IPCC scientists and environmental advocacy groups, government agencies, and partisan journalists.”

“It. Isn’t. Happening.” But…

Monckton reports that plopping these three pebbles into conversations at Durban produced ripples of aghast silence:  No statistically significant warming for 15 years; rebounding Arctic sea ice; little 30-year trend in global sea ice; five times as many polar bears as 70 years ago; and a growing Kilimanjaro glacier, which had been losing ice since 1880.

Monckton warns against complacency, however. Those cashing in on the scam will not just fade away. They want to turn the billions now flowing into trillions. Failure of a treaty will not stop inside operators, who are putting together potent, costly side agreements that will allow them to work around obstacles such as the U.S. Senate (CFACT 12/2/11, http://tinyurl.com/8yzu269  and http://tinyurl.com/7j82xtf).

Post-Durban Christmas Ditty

On the first day of Doomsville, alarmists gave to me:

12 Days in Durban

11 Journos hyping

10 Temps-not-Leaping

9 Mann’s-a-Dancing

8 Economies-busting

7 Seas-not-rising

6 Carbon phobias

5 thousand e-mailed things [Climategate II]

4 Absurd reports

3 Skeptic “birds”

2 Climate-gates

And a message entirely fact-free!

                Peter C. Glover, Energy Tribune 12/13/11 

Global Warming Windfalls

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has counted up 641 programs in place at 130 federal agencies in 2010 to prop up windmill technology and underwrite solar panel manufacturers. It could not provide a reliable estimate of cost to the taxpayers from the loans, tax credits, purchase of “green” vehicles, and regulations (Washington Times 3/19/12).

Gems from the 5,000 Emails

“I also think the science is being manipulated to put a political spin on it which for all our sakes might not be too clever in the long run”  (Peter Thorne of NOAA to Phil Jones, 2005).

“We’ve picked up a number of people from developing countries so IPCC can claim good geographic representation…. As CLAs [contributing lead authors]…we are working with about 50% good people who can write reasonable assessments and 50% who probably can’t” (Phil Jones, 2004).

“It seems that a few people have a very strong say, and no matter how much talking goes on beforehand, the big decisions [about the IPCC’s summary for policy makers] are made at the eleventh hour by a select core group” (Timothy Carter, Finnish Environmental Institute, 2000—Hayward, op. cit.).

“The data does not matter. We are not basing our recommendations on the data. We’re basing them on the climate models” (Chris Folland, Hadley Centre).

“The models are convenient fictions that provide something very useful” (David Frame, climate modeler, Oxford University).

“No matter if the science of global warming is all phony… climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world” (Christine Stewart, former Canadian Minister of the Environment—CFP op. cit.).

“The important thing is to be sure they’re [climate skeptics] are losing the PR battle” (Michael Mann).

Nobelist Quits APS in Protest

Dr. Ivar Giaever, 1973 winner of the Nobel Prize in physics for his discoveries related to tunneling in superconductors, resigned from the American Physical Society because of his objection to the APS position on global-warming fears. The APS insists on calling evidence that anthropogenic emissions of CO₂ are warming the planet “incontrovertible.” This word is rarely used in science, Giaever said, “because by its very nature, science questions prevailing ideas.”

He writes: “The claim…is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8 degree Kelvin in about 150 years, which (if true) means to me that the temperature has been amazingly stable, and both human health and happiness have improved in this ‘warming’ period.”

Worst Ever Climate Story

The weather is becoming more erratic by the year, reported Justin Gillis (NYT 12/24/11), with three or four disasters each year whose costs exceed $1 billion. A major question is whether extreme events are linked to human-caused global warming—now often called “climate change” or “climate disruption.”

Benjamin Santer claims that “we are changing the large-scale properties of the atmosphere—we know that beyond a shadow of a doubt.” And “you can’t engage in this vast planetary experiment…and have no impact on the frequency and duration of extreme events.” We could find out more if Washington would fund more research, but money is tight, and “the political environment for new climate-science initiatives has turned hostile.”

Even though he thinks that the media overall does a good job on climate reporting, Roger Pielke, Jr., thinks this story is “breathtakingly bad” (http://tinyurl.com/7wv3u6r). He notes:

• $1 billion in 2011 is about the same as $400 million in 1980. After adjusting for inflation, damage in 1980 was about the same as in 2011.
• The most powerful tornadoes, which cause almost all of the damage, have decreased in the past 50 years.
• NOAA has a robust climate attribution effort, ignored in the article. It has found no evidence of causality from increasing greenhouse gases. The IPCC also contradicts much of what the article says on climate extremes.

How Science Works

“In general we look for a new law by the following process. First we guess it. Then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what would be implied if this law that we guessed is right. Then we compare the result of the computation to nature, with experiment or experience; compare it directly with observation, to see if it works. If it disagrees with experiment, it is wrong” (Richard Feynman, cited by William Happer, WSJ 3/26/12). Happer writes that when observations fail to conform to the UN IPCC models, “Feynman has told us what conclusions to draw about the theory.”

The Durban Delusion

By Feb 28, 2012, countries around the world were supposed to submit their follow-up reports to Durban, on a “work plan on enhancing mitigation ambition.” By mid-March only 19, including the U.S.,  had done so. “Gone is the spirit of compromise,” laments Sonja van Renssen (European Energy News 3/26/12, http://tinyurl.com/6w2dhr9). China has returned to the “rhetoric of old.” The bottom-up approach is proving to be insufficient. A “top-down” approach, like in the EU, is needed: a legally binding, enforceable treaty.

The situation is similar with hurricanes (see July 2011 issue). Every year that a hurricane is a “near miss,” Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Long Island go into deeper denial. These regions are potential death traps because bridges and roads cannot handle a normal hurricane evacuation. Long Island could experience tens of thousands of drownings, as its preparedness exists on paper only. In downtown Providence, Rhode Island, there is a high-water mark of 17 ft on one of the buildings. In a category 3 hurricane, 29 Long Island towns would be completely submerged.

In the 10 years since 9/11, America has gone into a deeper sleep than before, Jones states. “Since the 2007 financial collapse, we are more like zombies, not afraid of dying because we have already died.”

Intervention

“The work we are doing is not academic, or reform,” Jones writes. “It is intervention, in an attempt to alter an otherwise disastrous outcome.” In 2009, Jones visited every congressional office with civil defense information (see January 2010 issue). Having now seen the poverty and blight of rural America from a bicycle, he compares the lavish livings of congressmen and Washington, D.C., bureaucrats to the excesses of the French aristocracy in 1789. Like the court of Louis XVI, Congress is totally out of touch with the Americans  it purports to represent.

Jones has concluded that it is now futile to work with policymakers. We must instead work directly with those who respond to disaster. “In spite of the somnambulism of the country, our front-line responders are awake. Police and firefighters always welcome the 60-second training cards.”

Freight Bicycles

During the Vietnam War, the Viet Cong moved tons of materiel through the jungle by freight bicycle. Kirk Paradise provides detailed instructions on how to rig bicycles to serve as a “wheeled porter” system in the Journal of Civil Defense, Issue 2, 2011. (Subscribe at www.tacda.org.) Jones says bicycles with big tires work best. Remove the pedals and the seat, and place a pole through the seat tube. You push the bicycle with the pole, and use the handlebars for steering. You could carry up to 500 lbs this way, in contrast to the 35 lbs you might be able to carry in a backpack. The bicycle would serve when roads are blocked or damaged, or fuel unavailable. Paradise suggests preparing a conversion kit for each bicycle and storing it with the load-carrying pole and your 72-hour kit and other gear. He reports being able to make the conversion within 6 minutes.

Totally Vulnerable to EMP

As the U.S. becomes ever more dependent on the electric grid and on electronics for both civilian and military functions, it becomes more vulnerable to attack by an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) or radiofrequency (RF) weapons. Telecommunications, banking, financial, and navigation systems could be “fried” by a turn of a switch, according to a Dept. of Defense and a communications system engineer, who spoke on condition of anonymity (F. Michael Maloof, G2 Bulletin 9/9/11).

Previously, concern centered on an attack by the Soviet Union or China. The Chinese currently claim to be developing an EMP bomb for their DF-21 “carrier killer” missiles. Iran and North Korea are both producing missiles capable of carrying a nuclear warhead for explosion high in the atmosphere, destroying electronic systems over a wide area. A solar storm could have the same effect. Local effects could be produced by an RF weapon mounted on a pickup truck. This could be constructed from technology available at Radio Shack. One application might be to disable vehicles on bridges into Washington, D.C., or Manhattan, creating massive congestion and chaos.

The U.S. has neglected to devote the attention and resources needed to address the problem, and is now further hampered by the fact that engineers with needed expertise have retired. Moreover, there is no way to test protective measures now that the U.S. allows no nuclear detonations of any kind.

Last year, the U.S. House of Representatives passed, by unanimous consent, an act similar to the SHIELD Act, which would have required utilities to protect large transformers against EMP, but the bill died in the Senate (GCOR, October 2011).

According to a report by Bob Ferguson to the American Legislative Exchange Council on Dec 2, 2011, a special commission to Congress estimated that two-thirds to 90% of the U.S. population would be dead a year after an EMP attack shut down the electric power grid.

At any opportunity, you might ask candidates for political office (national, state, and local) what they plan to do about this.

Totally Reliable Mercenaries

According to financial analyst Richard Maybury, the U.S. soldier of the century is a mercenary, presumably Iraqi or Afghani (see January 2011 issue), and there is concern about loyalty. “No robot has ever committed treason,” he notes.

Robots or drones have other advantages too: low cost and low risk to personnel. Defense Secretary Robert Gates specifically exempted drones from future budget cuts.

The latest technology with the potential to change the nature of warfare is the unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that can monitor enemy activity, intercept and disrupt communications, and launch missiles on the command of operators thousands of miles away.

Newly developed drones can actually be weapons themselves—miniature guided missiles. One example is the “Switchblade” (see www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/10/tiny-kamikaze-drone/).

Others want them too, and Iran is likely doing some reverse engineering on “an intruding RQ-170 American drone” downed in eastern Iran with “minimal damage.” The RQ-170 Sentinel is an unarmed stealth surveillance aircraft (MailOnline 12/5/11).

Some claim that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s cyber-warfare unit hacked the drone’s flight controls.

Using U.S. Predator drones for intelligence, the Turkish air force allegedly killed 35 civilians, mistaking them for rebels of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Many of the civilians might have been smuggling diesel fuel (CBSNews.com 12/31/11).

Police drones will soon start appearing in American skies, predicts Jim Powell (GCOR Nov/Dec 2011). And private citizens have them too (http://www.diydrones.com/).

Civil Defense Perspectives September 2011, Vol. 27 No. 6

Data should have killed the anthropogenic catastrophic global warming hypothesis, along with many other radical environmentalist policies, but lies have powerful protectors—including recipients of more than $32.5 billion in federal  funding for climate studies between 1989 and 2009, plus $79 billion more for climate change technology research, foreign aid, and tax breaks for “green energy” (PFW-Tucson, September 2011).The BEST Study

Published shortly before the 2011 climate summit in Durban, South Africa (coincidentally?), the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) project shows a 1.6 °F temperature rise between 1950 (a record-cold year) and 2000. Its director, reputed skeptic Richard Muller, stated that the study “proved that you shouldn’t be a skeptic, at least not any longer.” The Washington Post wrote that the BEST study had “settled the climate change debate” and that any remaining skeptic was a “cynical fraud.”

Prof. Muller himself, however, as Dr. Fred Singer points out,  emphasizes that the BEST data are only from land (30% of earth’s surface), and from poorly distributed sites mostly in the U.S. and western Europe. He admits that 70% of the U.S. stations are poorly sited, and others are probably worse. Furthermore, he disclaims knowledge of the cause of the warming.

The second named author of the BEST papers, Judith Curry, chairman of the Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology, said her colleagues appear to be trying to “hide the decline” in an affair comparable to the Climategate scandal (Mail on Sunday 10/30/11).

“There is no scientific basis for saying that warming hasn’t stopped,” she said. Note that the BEST graph stops in 2000.

BEST and the WP present a graph with a compressed 200-year x-axis, and a stretched y-axis to accentuate differences. Plotting monthly data from BEST’s own archives for 2001–2010 gives “a statistically perfect straight line of zero gradient,” writes David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (CCNet Special 10/30/11). Muller states that the lack of recent warming might be from a change in ocean oscillations. If so, then in another phase these oscillations would intensify the warming—yet the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has dismissed ocean oscillations as a possible cause of warming (The Week That Was 11/5/11, see www.sepp.org).

Climategate II

Another leak of emails from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia shows that the “team” largely responsible for preparing the IPCC report was very aware that the warming of the troposphere above the tropics—the distinct human fingerprint—was not occurring as predicted by models. Ben Santer et al. apparently tried to cover up the disparity by expanding error bars of measurements (TWTW 11/26/11).

Some 5,300 emails were released this time, and reportedly there are more than 200,000 encrypted behind a very difficult-to-crack code (ibid.).

Dr. Singer suggests it is a good time to re-read John Brignell’s 2009 essay, www.numberwatch.co.uk/lying.htm:

How We Know They Are Lying

For help in distinguishing those who are deliberately lying from those who are merely deluded, Brignell quotes fictional detective M. Maigret: “The clever ones always leave a clue.”

“We can identify the ‘scientists’ who habitually lie by the fact that they produce, on time, results that are never unexpected and always conform to the establishment-sponsored theory,” writes Brignell. “Real science is never that predictable.”

Until recent times, there was no circumstance in science in which a deliberate falsehood was acceptable. That has changed with the rise of authoritarian government and monopoly of funding—and the global warming religion. The clues include:

Secrecy. British “researchers” refused to yield up their calculations to scrutiny on the grounds that “you only want to criticize.” Albert Einstein, in contrast, passed his results onto Eddington so that a critical test could be devised.

Rewriting the past. Astute observers noticed that historical temperatures were changing, almost always upward.

Ratchet reporting (overplaying heat waves, barely mentioning record cold) and outright censorship.

Mass Killing

The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is reportedly being implemented through brute force.

In Honduras, 23 farmers were allegedly murdered when they tried to recover land they claimed had been illegally sold to palm oil plantations to obtain carbon credits to use in the ETS. Several members of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) executive board reported feeling “personally distressed,” but since the deaths occurred after the stakeholder consultations had been held, they were powerless to block project registrations. An EU official said that including human rights abuses in CDM assessments would be “very difficult.”

“If this really is a direct consequence of Europe’s climate policies then I would like to send my sincere apologies to the people of Honduras,” said Bas Eikhout, a Green member of the European parliament (MEP) (CCNet 10/2/11).

In Uganda, armed troops killed children and burned houses to the ground in the process of seizing land for reforestation. Troops were acting on behalf of New Forests Company, a British carbon trading company backed by the World Bank. The government and company said “the settlers were illegal and evicted for good cause: to protect the environment and help fight global warming.” Some 20,000 people have been “resettled”—in a “peaceful, voluntary” way (NY Times 9/23/11).

Harder to count are the lives and opportunities lost because of the soft tyranny of the regulatory regime being imposed throughout the world, based on pseudo-scientific fraud.

The Undead Persist

“Failures of climate models have failed to kill climate alarmism,” writes Howard Hayden. “Like Bram Stoker’s Count Dracula, the ‘climate change’ scare sucks the blood out of civilization, and like Count Dracula, ‘climate theory’ is undead because it does not exist” (The Energy Advocate, October 2011).

Historical Precedent

“James Hansen, notorious among global warming critics as a ruthless fudger of data,” writes Brignell, “blew the gaff in the euphoria of the Green takeover in the USA, by admitting that the main issue was the redistribution of wealth.”

Dr. Lawrence Huntoon writes that we should pause to remember the 78th anniversary of the Holodomor, the Soviet-imposed famine of 1932-1933. “In the ‘occupy’ movement of the time, the Bolsheviks, including Stalin, declared that they were going to take from the rich, and by the way kill them, so that wealth could be redistributed to create a workers’ paradise.”

On August 7, 1932, the Law of Spikelets declared that food was “socialist property.” Peasants caught eating food were deemed guilty of theft of socialist property and were subject to the death penalty. Starvation was used as a weapon of mass destruction against Ukrainians who wanted to preserve their national identity. “They threw food in the ocean, but wouldn’t give it to the people,” writes Jay Tokasz (Buffalo News 11/20/11).

Among the famine deniers were French Prime Minister Edouard Herriot and British journalist Walter Duranty, who was Moscow bureau chief for the NY Times. In 2003, the Pulitzer Prize Board decided not to revoke Duranty’s 1932 Pulitzer Prize, stating that there was no “clear and convincing evidence of deliberate deception,” and the specific articles submitted for the prize were not about the famine. Duranty had traveled the countryside and was a first-hand witness to the atrocities that claimed 10 million human victims.

Poor People Starved to Grow Auto Fuel

This year, for the first time, American farmers will harvest more corn for ethanol than for feed. In Europe, 50% of rapeseed production is                 going into biofuel, along with 18% of the world’s sugar. While an increase in the price of food is an annoyance in the U.S., in places where people spend 80% of their income on food, hundreds of millions go hungry. And some revolt.

“What we call today the Arab Spring really started as a protest against ever-increasing food prices,” stated Nestlé’s CEO Peter Brabeck-Letmathe (WSJ 9/3/11).

Politicians claim they want to replace 20% of the energy market through the food market. The energy market, however, is 20 times the size of the food market, in terms of calories, stated Brabeck-Lemanthe (ibid.).

Allocating several thousand hectares of land in Swaziland to ethanol production while the country was in the grip of a famine was called a “crime against humanity” (CCNet 9/23/11).

Bird Deaths

In North Dakota, 28 dead migratory birds were found near waste oil lagoons. Continental Resources is accused of violating the 1918 Migratory Bird Treaty Act because it killed one Phoebe’s Say, a crime punishable by a $15,000 fine and up to 6 months in prison.  Some 440,000 birds are killed each year by wind turbines, but there have been no federal prosecutions (WSJ 9/29/11).

Near Pittsburgh, 35 wind turbines have to be shut down at night because an endangered bat was found dead near one of them. The mode of death is most likely encountering an air pressure drop that causes the lungs to explode. When hibernation season starts, turbines may begin to turn again (AP 10/18/11).

Heating Versus Eating

In London, more than one in four people are struggling to pay their energy costs as prices rise and the fuel poverty allowance is cut. Between 2004 and 2009, domestic energy prices increased by more than 75%, and gas prices by more than 122%. “For a lot of pensioners, you either heat or you eat,” said George Durack of the Islington Pensioners’ Forum. “Elderly people could die if something is not done” (CCNet 9/20/11).

Green Subsidies a “Disgrace”

While the British government is committed to a target of generating 15% of its energy from renewable sources (an increase from 6.6% now), Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, articulated what many ordinary people think about wind farms: He called them a “disgrace.” More valuable than the inefficient, unreliable power the turbines generate are the Renewable Obligations Certificates that wind farm speculators can sell (CCNet 11/21/11).

Europe’s “unsustainable and chaotic green energy policy” is a lose-lose proposition for all except financial players, writes Andrew McKillop (CCNet 9/20/11). Owing to lack of distribution capability, wind power is already overcapacity at times of peak output, and the excess must simply be shed or wasted.

Corruption and Hidden Agendas

It appears that the BBC “has relentlessly promoted the global warming orthodoxy as a pressure group in its own right,” writes Christopher Booker (Sunday Telegraph 11/20/11). Among the sources of improper sponsorship is Envirotrade, which is cashing in on selling “carbon offsets.”

Climategate II emails show Hockey Stick inventor Michael Mann casting about for ways to smear Steve McIntyre (WSJ 11/28/11). Meanwhile, it is revealed that alarmist-in-chief James Hansen “forgot” to report $1.6 million in outside income, as required by government contracts (http://tinyurl.com/7xcvdxy).

A scathing exposé reveals that the IPCC has pervasive ties with green activists, and that its supposedly authoritative work relies to a large extent on graduate students with little experience in their field. In her book The Delinquent Teenager Who Was Mistaken for the World’s Top Climate Expert, Canadian freelancer Donna Lafromboise documents how the “reviewers” of the IPCC report are blocked, ignored, or even threatened if they ask for data to back up a claim. An audit of the 2007 IPCC report found that one-third of the 18,531 citations were from non-peer-reviewed literature, including activist reports and even press releases.

Aborting Jobs

The discovery of some 200 trillion cu ft of shale gas beneath northwest England is being greeted with—dismay. Cheap, abundant gas threatens the frail, heavily subsidized “green” energy sector—and “carbon dioxide goals.” England may follow the French in banning the use of hydraulic fracturing (“frocking”). This would abort a Canadian or North Dakota style “jobs gusher” that could create new opportunities or prevent the loss of energy-intensive industries. Rio Tinto Alcan is closing its Northumberland plant, and steel giant Tata says new investment is threatened by “green” policies (Energy Tribune 11/23/11).

When Stephen Jones asked Arizona firefighters whether they had a plan for nuclear attack, they answered, “No.” Any instruments for measuring radiation? With few exceptions: “No.” That is no longer the situation in Arizona–in any jurisdiction that lacks an obstructive bureaucracy.The latest government Planning Guidance for Response to a Nuclear Detonation, released Jan 19, 2009, confirms that local jurisdictions will be on their own: “There will be no significant Federal response at the scene for 24 hours and the full extent of Federal assets will not be available for up to 72 hours” (Homeland Security Council Interagency Policy Coordination Subcommittee for Preparedness & Response to Radiological and Nuclear Threats).

Yet virtually all lifesaving measures will have to be undertaken immediately. And there is no indication in the new Administraton’s Homeland Security agenda of new federal assets to respond to nuclear detonation–only aspirations for a “nuclear-free world.”

Thus, Physicians for Civil Defense has created a radiological monitoring net covering the state of Arizona, a model that can be emulated throughout the U.S. It rests on the back-up default plan for situations like now, in which there is no plan–the situation foreseen by visionaries like Cresson Kearny and Conrad Chester, who created and tested the expedient Nuclear War Survival Skills (NWSS) methods, such as the KFM (Kearny fallout meter), for use by ordinary Americans.

The Arizona Nuclear War Survival Skills Tour

Our crew–Stephen Jones, Kevin McDonald, and Logan Connor–drove 5,000 miles, visited about 145 fire stations, photographed more than 400 firefighters with NWSS, sent press releases to 50 newspapers, and did personal interviews with 20 reporters. Expecting to have many doors slammed in their faces, this happened only once outside major urban areas; response was overwhelmingly positive. Our volunteers were asked on the spot to participate in ongoing training sessions, and even to return to do a special session.

The message is simple and compelling: “It works. You can do it.” Firefighters instantly connected with Steve’s teaching tool: an Indian weather stone. The stone hangs from a frame by a leather strip, with instructions: “If the stone is wet, it’s raining. If the stone is white, it’s snowing. If the stone is moving, the wind is blowing.”

If the leaves of the KFM are moving together, there’s radiation. If they’re not moving, there is no radiation danger.

Radiation becomes an understandable, easily measurable natural phenomenon, rather than a terrifying demon.

The first 35 pages of the manual explain nuclear weapons effects, essential protective measures, and the radiation decay curve (7/10 rule). Devastating as nuclear weapons are, people outside the lethal zone can survive–if they do not panic.

The Emergency Nuclear Attack Kit provided to each jurisdiction contains: the manual (NWSS), a factory-made KFM stored in a small paint can with extra silica gel, a plexiglass charging device, and instructions for building a KFM; a zip-lock bag with everything needed to make a KFM except the tin can; and a NukAlert with instruction manual. Firefighters are asked to download and print out their own copies of NWSS.

Steve Jones and Jane Orient previously distributed NukAlerts to a number of fire districts in Arizona, as well as many in other states who requested them. For two years now, the Marana fire district has had a NukAlert on a key chain in every engine–and firefighters are proud to show them. We concluded, however, that a change in strategy is needed.

The foundation of the plan has to be NWSS. There are not enough NukAlerts–or other comparable electronic instruments–in existence to supply the need, and it will be impossible to manufacture enough quickly. The KFM is America’s main instrument. NukAlerts complement the KFM and will do the most good in the hands of first responders who are part of a regional monitoring net. Firefighters in Yuma can now call Window Rock, San Luis, or any other Arizona town and find out the radiation level on the ground.

Videographer Kevin McDonald created slide shows of the Arizona tour and videotapes of training sessions, which can be viewed at www.physiciansforcivildefense.org. You can also access them on www.YouTube.com. Search on “Physicians for Civil Defense” or “roadman911.” A long-range project is to incorporate these and other materials into a civil defense documentary for wide distribution.

The total cost of the 5-week tour was about $100,000, if one considers retail cost of the donated materials. We thank KI4U for NukAlerts, the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine for the NWSS manuals, KI4U and Doctors for Disaster Preparedness for cash donations, and others.

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What Next?

There are about 23,000 jurisdictions in the U.S. small enough to be receptive to receiving a NWSS emergency kit. It would cost from $8 million to $12 million to supply each with a kit, depending on distribution method. We would like to start by buying up the existing inventory of KFMs and NukAlerts, at a price that would generate new production, so that we could supply a kit to every jurisdiction that requested one for firefighters, emergency managers, or law enforcement. We intend to start there, to the extent that funds are donated.

In the meantime, we will refine our tools to improve the self-training nature of the program. Americans need to make their own KFMs–the kit is a model and an incentive.

America should have a real civil defense program, with well-stocked blast shelters. NWSS could eventually spark this, or at least a revival of a shelter program like that in Huntsville, Alabama. In the meantime, it is the only feasible starting point that we can see. It could save millions directly, and indirectly by helping to keep 5 million essential workers on the job.

A small investment in information and simple technology could potentially mean the ability of America to recover from a devastating, increasingly likely nuclear blow. The more kits there are in your region, the safer your family is. Contact us if you want to help us supply your state or area: 520.325.2689.

50% Chance of Nuclear Detonation?

A nuclear terrorist attack on the U.S. is a better than even bet in the next 10 years, stated Graham Allison, a former U.S. assistant secretary of defense. The illicit economy for narcotics and illegal alien trafficking has built up a vast infrastructure that could be exploited to deliver a nuclear weapon. Former president Bush, vice president Cheney, and the 9/11 Commis­sion all concluded that a nuclear terrorist attack was not only the nation’s worst nightmare, but a virtual inevitability.

A study by the Center for Mass Destruction Defense at the University of Georgia concluded that a concerted effort to teach civilians what to do could save countless lives (World NetDaily 7/6/07).

Russia Combat Ready

According to President Dmitry Medvedev, speaking to the Federal Assembly Nov 5, “Our Armed Forces have been restored to combat potential to a considerable degree.” Three Russian missile regiments will not be disbanded as previously decided; the Iskander missile system will be deployed to Kaliningrad to “neutralize” NATO deployment of ABMs in Poland; and ABM bases will be electronically jammed (J.R. Nyquist, Financial Sense.com 11/14/08).

A Credible Deterrent?

The week before the November 2008 election, defense secretary Robert Gates called for putting the Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) program into operation, noting that the nation’s current arsenal–mostly produced in the 1970s and 1980s–may be becoming unreliable. This appears to be at odds with Obama’s promise to develop “no new nuclear weapons” (Time 1/26/09).

Recent U.S. incidents have focused attention on the neglect of nuclear forces, and a lack of understanding of nuclear deterrence at the Pentagon. “If adversaries believe the U.S. deterrent is weak, they might be tempted to use nukes against us or threaten to do so” (Wall St J 1/24-25/09). In addition, former Defense Secretary James Schlesinger notes that if the 30-plus countries relying on the U.S. nuclear umbrella lose confidence, some might decide to acquire their own nuclear arsenal. That’s precisely the opposite of the nuclear-free-world argument that others would disarm if the U.S. did so.

Food Storage Tips

Sealing food in Mylar bags with oxygen absorbers for long-term storage has had disappointing results because the bags tend to spring leaks–or rodents might gnaw a hole in them. Thus it is best to place your bags in a plastic bucket with a lid. The use of an iron to seal the bag is shown at www.yout­ube. com/watch?v=fk9b0dAtJ80. Note that wheat and beans stored in this way will be edible long term but will not sprout.

A Sign of Hard Times

An estimated 40,000 people came to a Colorado family farm on a single day to collect free potatoes, carrots, and leeks. The family decided to give away produce because they had a lot left over after the fall festival, and any day a deep freeze could kill it off. Between 5,000 and 10,000 people had been expected, spread out over several days (Denver Post 11/23/08).

A Response to a Global Warmist

“Reflections” on an interview with Jonathan Overpeck, KUAT, Arizona Illustrated, Jan 20, 2009

The global warming scare will change your life if the alarmists prevail. They demand policies that would shut down half the electricity in the United States. Coal-generated power cannot be replaced by windmills and solar panels, no matter how much of our land we carpet with these expensive eyesores and their transmission lines.

To force you to reduce your “carbon footprint,” the UN wants the power to keep you from driving your car, heating or cooling your home, or even having a baby. Enron-style cap-and-trade schemes, or a carbon tax, would enrich tax collectors and companies like Al Gore’s–and drive most Americans into poverty. These are not modest, sensible insurance policies; these are economy-wrecking, freedom-ending, radical schemes to empower tyrannical world government.

Do we have to do it to save the Planet? The idea that human beings can influence climate is not new. In the Middle Ages, thousands of women were burned at the stake as witches to protect against bad weather. Now we don’t have witches but we do have Al Gore’s movie showing a cartoon of wicked greenhouse gas demons beating up on poor Mr. Sunbeam.

The earth is warmer now than in 1776, and the temperature is now close to the 3,000-year average. The weather was much nicer during the Medieval Warm Period, when vineyards thrived in England.

Human use of coal, oil, and natural gas has increased steadily since around 1900, but the slope of the temperature curve since 1776 hasn’t changed. There have been fluctuations in the temperature curve, and those correlate very well not with CO2, but with solar activity.

CO2 is a very weak greenhouse gas. Its possible effect on temperature is negligible. The important effect of the increased level in the atmosphere is that the Earth is significantly greener. CO2 is Nature’s recycling molecule. It is plant food. Restricting CO2 means starving plants, and thus animals and human beings.

Dr. Overpeck and his UN IPCC colleagues didn’t predict that global warming would take a break starting around 1998. But the snow in Baghdad and other record lows are “just weather,” they say. We should still trust their computer models: Catastrophic warming will soon resume, unless we repent and stop using affordable, available fuels.

Some 32,000 American scientists, plus increasing numbers of former IPCC scientists disagree with Gore and Overpeck. The global warmers’ answer is that if you disagree with them, you’re not really a scientist. Pay no attention to the evidence–or to the man behind the curtain, they say: just believe in the Wizard. Jane M. Orient, M.D.

Reflections on Terrorism in Mumbai

From a posting by Butler Shaffer (LewRockwell.com/blog, 11/30/08), “How Gun Control Laws Contributed to the Mum-bai Slaughter”: After the mutiny of 1857, the British systematically disarmed the Indian masses and destroyed the means of local firearm production. Gandhi wrote: “Among the…misdeeds of the British rule in India, history will look upon the Act depriving a whole nation of arms as the blackest.” Said the Dalai Lama: “If someone has a gun and is trying to kill you, it would be reasonable to shoot back with your own gun.”