Civil Defense Perspectives 34(4): July 2019 (published October 2019)
The carbon cycle on earth involves the atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere, and the lithosphere. Today’s panicked schoolchildren crusade for the cause of keeping it (carbon-based “fossil” fuels) in the ground, or for sucking carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and pumping it below ground, purportedly to keep it from frying the planet or acidifying the oceans.
In fact, there is a natural mechanism for sequestering CO2: living organisms in the ocean. One hundred million billion tons of carbon have been taken up by coccolithophores (phytoplankton), shellfish, corals and foraminifera (zooplankton) over the past 160 million years, according to Patrick Moore, speaking at the 37th annual meeting of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness. These organisms incorporate carbon into calcium carbonate plates, scales, or shells. Over the long-term, these become a carbon sink as they fall to the bottom of the ocean and become part of the sediment. The level of atmospheric CO2 has fallen steadily from about 2,500 ppmv to the current level of less than 400 ppmv over this period—perilously close to the 150 ppmv level that spells the death of plants.
The earth’s crust contains about 100 million Petagrams (Pg) of carbon; fossil fuels, 5,000-10,000 Pg; the intermediate and deep ocean, about 37 Pg; the surface ocean, about 735 Pg, the atmosphere, about 850 Pg; and land plants, about 560 Pg. (1 Pg = 1015 g.) Plants get their CO2 from the atmosphere, which is in equilibrium with the ocean. The only way that mankind can replenish the CO2 accessible to plants is by burning “fossil” fuels. While human CO2 emissions are characterized as the destroyer of life, they could in fact be life’s salvation.
Coral reefs, contrary to alarmist reports, are not dying or stopping their CO2 incorporation. Coral bleaching is not death, Moore said. “It is a natural event from which coral normally recovers fully.” He also pointe out that the world’s warmest seas are in the Coral Triangle. And, according to the World Wildlife Fund, “The Coral Triangle is the planet’s richest centre of marine life and coral diversity, with over 6,000 species of fish, 76% of the world’s coral species, and an awe-inspiring array of wildlife.”
While there is no scientific proof that CO2 is causing the recent warming, it is absolutely certain the increased CO2 is greening the earth, Moore said. Maps from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) show an increase in leaf area on plants and trees twice that of the continental U.S.
There Is No Greenhouse Effect
Paleoclimate data about the much higher CO2 concentrations in the remote past ought to be definitive refutation of the theory of a runaway greenhouse effect owing to positive feedbacks. Yet the idea of CO2 as the temperature control knob has become dogma. At the DDP meeting, Ronan Connolly and Michael Connolly presented what has been learned about this theory from “Balloons in the Air” (https://tinyurl.com/yyytvoa5), basing their analysis on the data and the gas laws.
The controversy about CO2 began in the late 19th century. Svante Arrhenius argued that changes in CO2 could have caused the ice ages, by altering the rate at which the earth cooled to space. Knut Ångström disagreed, arguing that his experiments showed that CO2 was not a major driver of air temperatures.
The Connollys found that CO2 is indeed an infrared-active gas, as are water and other “greenhouse gases.” However, the IPCC models ignore Einstein’s 1919 observation that if a gas is in thermodynamic equilibrium, the rate of infrared absorption is equal to the rate of emission—the gas does not store the energy. The Connollys’ data show that the gases are in thermodynamic equilibrium. The weather balloons “have shown quite categorically that there is no greenhouse effect” (52:44 on video).
People have ignored a means of energy transmission (of 2,400 ± 80 Watts/m2) in air that is three orders of magnitude greater than the mechanisms they consider (conduction, convection, radiation, and acoustic). The Connollys call it “pervection” or through-mass or mechanical energy transmission, which is independent of thermal transmission. This is one important factor ignored in IPCC models.
The IPCC is wrong to state that recent climate changes are due to greenhouse gases, the Connollys conclude. The computer models IPCC relies on are based on flawed early 20th century science. Carbon mitigation should no longer be considered a priority. Climate model projections are worthless. Policy should be based primarily on observed historical climate variability.
Petrified CO2
The amazing Petrified Forest in northern Arizona contains logs fossilized in stone. CarbFix in Iceland has an industrial process to turn CO2 into calcite crystals in basaltic rock before it ever has a chance to become part of a tree. At the Hellisheidi geothermal power plant, near Reykjavik, CO2 is captured from the power plant’s steam, dissolved into large volumes of water, and injected between 400m and 800m deep into the basalt below. Since 2016, CarbFix has been injecting about 10,200 tonnes of CO2 per year into subsurface storage. There is also a pilot project on the Columbia River in Washington State. In theory, basalts could permanently hold the entire bulk of CO2 emissions derived from burning all fossil fuel on Earth. “The leakage risk is zero. The problem it leaves for the next generation to solve? Also zero” (https://tinyurl.com/y5tatg84). But without enough CO2 to feed plants, will there be a next generation?
Another carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is being tried to save gas utilities for homeowners and businesses, which are so much cheaper to operate than electric heat. The CARBiNX device sucks flue gas out of the vents into a potassium hydroxide-containing chamber to generate heat and potassium carbonate. So, the CO2 can make soap and “bath bombs” instead of plants (https://tinyurl.com/y3sc37hv).
A Hard Cap on Human Emissions
Global planners have calculated the cumulative total of human CO2 emissions since the Industrial Revolution allowable to keep temperature below the UN Paris target—as if there were no carbon cycle. Estimates of the remaining carbon budget vary. But at some point excesses will have to be permanently removed (Nature 7/18/19), they say. Will the corals be the last to die?
Sacrificing for the Planet
According to Kimberly Nicholas, a climate change researcher and lecturer at Lund University in Sweden, annual emissions produced by every person on the planet must stay below 2.1 tons of CO2 by the year 2050 if the warming of the planet is to be kept below 2°C (3.6°F)—the maximum limit in the 2015 Paris climate accord. One round-trip transatlantic flight is estimated to emit more than three-quarters of that annual carbon budget. To save the equivalent “climate pollution,” one would need to: eat no meat for 2 years, not drive a car for 9 months, recycle comprehensively for 8 years, or use reusable shopping bags for 320 years. The no-flying movement is taking off in Sweden, although a one-way train trip from London to Madrid costs $680 and 30 hours of travel time, while round-trip airfare is $45 and 5 hours. A Swede who flew to New York for a UN internship felt so guilty that she took a cargo ship home (https://tinyurl.com/y2oeccu7).
Stakeholders
Al Gore: A big investor in Beyond Meat, a producer of ersatz meat products, Gore stands to make multi-millions as a result of the 568-page report, “Creating a Sustainable Food Future” by the World Resources Institute. It recommends eating far less beef in order to rescue the planet. The report is backed by Gore associates (https://tinyurl.com/y2wo7dqt).
Medical/Public Health “Community”: AAP (American Academy of Pediatrics, 14 other organizations, and 80 physicians or scientists filed an amicus brief in Juliana v. U.S., claiming that the use of “fossil” fuels violates children’s rights to a safe, stable environment, and that climate change is the “greatest public health emergency of our time.” Authors Renee Salas (tinyurl.com/y2noy3fy), Wendy Jacobs (tinyurl.com/y54navcg), and Frederica Perera (tinyurl.com/yxmk5fbs) claimed to have no financial conflicts to disclose in their NEJM article (https://tinyurl.com/y56oat2p). But without the “emergency” of CO2 emissions, their academic departments, grants, and consultant’s fees would likely vanish.
“Pro Bono” Lawyers: Former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, through the State Energy and Environmental Impact Center, hires lawyers to place in state attorneys general offices to fight against rollback of environmental rules and to prosecute Exxon officials for the “offense” of “climate denial” (WSJ 7/5/19).
“Renewables” Updates
Walmart Sues Tesla: After seven fires causing $8.2 million in damages, Walmart, once touted as a “green energy giant,” has asked Tesla to remove solar panels from 240 stores. One fire happened even after the panels had been disconnected. Shoddy installation was blamed (https://tinyurl.com/y2e2moar).
Deforestation: More than 2 million trees have been cut down in South Korea over the past 3 years to make way for solar panels, damaging 4,407 hectares (about 17 sq mi) of forest. Going nuclear would save millions of trees (tinyurl.com/y5t2oq3c).
Nonrenewable: While trees re-grow, solar panels do not. Solar goals of Paris accords would require panel disposal with tonnage twice as great as global plastic waste (WSJ 8/5/19).
Cost: After $2 trillion in global spending, solar and wind supply <2% of global energy (https://tinyurl.com/yxcx3v74). In fact, after proliferation “at a furious pace,” wind supplied 0.46% of global energy in 2014 (https://tinyurl.com/k3y9n43).
Back-up: To compensate for episodic wind/solar output, U.S. utilities have added three times as many oil- and gas-burning reciprocating engines (big cruise-ship-like diesels) to the grid since 2000 as in the 50 years prior to that (ibid.).
Temperature Measurement Errors
NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (NASA-GISS) claims that the annual values in its surface temperature analysis (GISTEMP) are likely accurate to within 0.09°F (0.05°C) in recent decades, and 0.27 °F (0.15 °C) at the beginning of the nearly 140-year record. However, the greatest number of 2,592 IPCC grid boxes with daily maximum and minimum temperature readings was about 1,200 in the 1970s, and was down to 600 in 1998. According to the User’s Guide, the instruments have a maximum error for recording ambient temperature of ± 1.8°F for temperatures between -58°F and +122°F, and an error of ± 3.6°F beyond that range. If temperatures are below freezing, the dew point error may be up to 13.9°F. Further, NASA-GISS’s 140-year global record purports to cover areas where there never have been thermometers for any length of time, including vast stretches of Antarctica (TWTW 7/6/19, www.sepp.org).
Time’s Up, Prosperity
“Time’s up, CO2,” editorializes Marcia McNutt, president of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and former editor of Science. We can firmly predict a “warming well beyond limits encountered in all of human history.” She refers to the 1979 Charney report, which focused on the radiative effects of atmospheric CO2 and predicted a lag of decades between the CO2 emissions and the warming (Science 8/2/19).
Connolly and Connolly pointed out that radiation accounts for only 0.29 Watts/m2 (0.01%) of the energy transfer (see p 1).
Since demand-side restrictions on carbon-based fuel use might not be enough, economists suggest supply-side measures as well: restrictions on exploration and extraction. This would cause loss of profits to producers but generate “climate benefits.” The inevitable price rise would supposedly stimulate R&D in “low-carbon” technology (Science 7/26/19). The energy poverty of billions is apparently not worth mentioning.
The Extinction Rebellion, founded in London in 2018, is “an international movement for direct, non-violent action to avert ecological collapse.” It demands “legally binding policy measures to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2025 and the establishment of a new national Citizens’ Assembly to oversee climate action.” Actions include blocking bridges; “school strikes” and marches by tens of thousands of pupils in Germany, Sweden, Australia, and the UK; and a nascent BirthStrike. Many members say they are willing to go to prison.
It’s “a journey we can no longer postpone, whatever the inconvenience. Indeed, inconvenience is going to have be part of the point,” writes David Mattin, Global Head of Trends & Insights. “The structural changes we need to make are vast. But we can’t hide from the truth any longer. The resistance is justified” (tinyurl.com/y5676zp2). The movement calls for “a new vision of our collective life.” Apparently, we need to destroy our economy, our form of government, and our way of life in order to save “the global climate” and ourselves.