Civil Defense Perspectives Vol. 37 #6
The ground will be frozen in Ukraine in mid-December. This means that recently mobilized Russian troops will soon, some say, be able to mount a major offensive.
Does this portend nuclear war? Why this concern about a conventional conflict between two nations, only one of which has nuclear weapons, sparking worldwide nuclear war?
There are two narratives about the war. According to my email feed from Quora, Russians are hopelessly inept and ill-equipped, and sure to suffer a humiliating defeat. According to Alexander Mercouris and the Duran, on Youtube.com and other channels, Gonzalo Lira (tinyurl.com/2p96nzx9), and Will Schryver (tinyurl.com/39jmd5jh), among others, the Ukrainian military is being annihilated, and collapse is prevented only by Western aid.
For Russia, defeat by NATO, especially with Ukraine joining NATO and the EU, is an existential threat that might be seen as justifying resort to nuclear weapons. And a strong, sovereign Russia might be seen as an existential threat to globalists.
Two recent events might be viewed as deliberate provocations. Missiles landed in Poland and killed two farmers. Initially some blamed Russia for attacking a NATO member, but the missiles were Ukrainian and were launched from Ukraine. Did someone hope to draw NATO into the conflict directly (https://tinyurl.com/3uye5zkm)? Some analysts say that NATO could not win a conventional war with Russia (CDP May 2022, https://tinyurl.com/3pjs7cj9).
Two air bases deep within Russia were struck by what are believed to be Soviet-era drones: Ryazan, a few hours’ drive from Moscow, and Engels air base, home to Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. The Tupolev long-range bombers at Engels form a big part of Russia’s strategic nuclear arsenal, similar to U.S. B-52s (https://tinyurl.com/mpz6nf9).
Americans have often been told that in a nuclear war there are no winners. But the destruction of the economy, infrastructure, and millions of lives in the “superpowers” might be considered victory by globalists who see the U.S. and possibly Russia as impediments to totalitarian one-world government. They know that all the nukes in the world cannot destroy the planet or turn it into a radioactive wasteland. The idea that “radiation is forever” (by definition, it decays!) and that “there is no safe dose” are myths though widely believed. Nuclear war may be unthinkable to a majority—but not to those who could launch it.
Federal Disaster Response: It’s D.I.Y.
The scientists who researched and tested measures to protect against nuclear weapons effects at the dawn of the atomic age believed that the government would never develop an adequate civil defense program. So, even though they worked for the U.S. Department of Energy, they focused on measures that could be implemented by ordinary Americans. Both the methods themselves and the written instructions were field-tested by lay people.
The actual construction of expedient shelters, under the supervision of Cresson Kearny, was done at the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine in 1986, and video is available (tinyurl.com/4by72sny). Most Americans would not be able to implement this today, even if they had adequate warning. They don’t live in a place where it would be practical or permissible to dig a hole. They might, however, be able to make a core shelter, as Kearny demonstrated (tinyurl.com/26k4er9b). Or the best available shelter might be a basement or near the center of a building—in many cases adequate to prevent receiving a lethal dose. The key question is when it would be safe to leave.
Our government officials are unable to answer that question.
The Nuclear Was Survival Skills plan (oism.org/nwss) is the default government-supported plan for the vast majority of Americans not included in Continuity of Government operations or wealthy enough to have a huge bunker.
Cresson Kearny’s book Nuclear War Survival Skills, first published by Oak Ridge National Laboratory in 1979, had detailed instructions for making an electroscope radiation monitor, which can be as accurate as instruments costing thousands of dollars, if meticulously made. The plan was for newspapers to print them in a developing crisis. I remember clipping instructions for a crude electroscope from Parade magazine during the Cold War.
Like the rest of government, emergency management has been corrupted. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) used to be called the Office of Civil Defense. By degrees, its mission was changed from protecting the public from the effects of nuclear weapons to protecting the public from Mother Nature and goblins in the closet, states Stephen Jones, special projects director for Physicians for Civil Defense.
Americans need to know that government at all levels lacks the ability to monitor fallout radiation. In the rare casein which officials have instruments, they do not have personnel trained to use them. “New York’s uncontested PSA of ‘Get Inside, Stay Inside, Stay Tuned’ (https://tinyurl.com/4k6ay65j) shows both the government’s ignorance and the success of enemy propaganda against the American people,” states Jones.
“Emergency Management—federal, state, county, and municipal—are incentivized NOT to prepare for disasters,” Jones explains. “If disaster strikes and there is great loss of life and or property, Emergency Management receives huge grants, massive overtime pay, and great publicity. If effective disaster plans are in place such that no loss of life and little property damage occurs, no grant money or overtime wages are forthcoming.” Thus, preparedness is your job.
See November 2022 DDP Newsletter (https://tinyurl.com/yc78ckzn) for more information on radiation monitoring.
NWSS is an invaluable resource for surviving disasters of all types, which have consequences like those after nuclear war. There is information on water purification, sanitation, emergency lighting, affordable food storage, fires and carbon monoxide, ventilation, improvised winter clothing, and minimum pre-crisis preparations. The updated DDP medical kit can be downloaded here: (ddponline.org/pdf-medical-kit-download-page).
Cresson Kearny asked whether people deserved to survive if they couldn’t even be bothered to make a fallout meter.
Once the need becomes obvious, radmonitors.com, http://ki4u.com/, and other sources will be sold out.
Like with past warnings, this crisis might pass without disaster. Don’t panic, but get this insurance while you still can.
How Would a Nuclear War Play Out?
Imagine that you are a general or in charge of the nuclear arsenal in your country. Remember that when World War 2 began we had a submarine fleet of about 300 boats. While they were equipped with state-of-the-art torpedoes they initially had a 70% failure rate of some 1,400 torpedoes fired, and some boats had a 90% failure rate, Stephen Jones points out.
Consider Russia and the U.S. with mostly aging arsenals. Our bomber fleet was largely built in the 1950s and is vulnerable to air defenses. How many of the missiles carrying nukes will actually work? Solid-fueled missiles (like U.S. SLBMs), if there is a crack in the fuel block, could blow up mid-flight. And how many of the warheads will be duds or nearly duds? (See below.)
An all-out nuclear attack on the U.S. would likely start with an electromagnetic pulse (cars stalling, radio broadcasts going silent), followed by small nukes launched from submarines off our coasts. Costal cities would have virtually no warning while cities in our heartland might have five-to-ten minutes warning. One life-saving warning could be loud booms and lights in the distance. What may look like a shooting star in the daylight could be a re-entry vehicle. An intense brilliant light or flash is the last warning, such that if you don’t immediately drop and cover you will be killed or badly injured.
A nuclear war would not be over in an hour. Misses and duds mean that millions of people will get a chance to take cover and survive if they know simple things to do. Over the next few days, the enemy may send bombers to mop up.
Note that air-burst nuclear warheads do not produce much fallout. Deposits that look like sand mean you may need to stay inside for as much as two weeks, Jones states; if it looks like ash or dust, a few days are likely enough.
The aftermath might be impossible to survive in a city. People might need to escape by walking. Jones recalls that the North Vietnamese won the war by using bicycles to transport material to the front. If you remove the pedals from a bike and replace the seat with a pole, several hundred pounds can be loaded onto the bike that you walk out with.
Stockpile Stewardship
The U.S has conducted no nuclear testing, even underground, since the early 1990s. The only recent known tests have been by North Korea. Being radioactive, warheads deteriorate. According to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), the W78 thermonuclear warhead atop Minuteman ICBMs is nearing the end of its functional lifespan after 37 years in service. The W87-1 program slated to replace it will require all new manufacturing of components, which has not been done since 1992. Its function will be assessed by 3D simulations with supercomputers; the El Capitan, 50 times faster than the Sierra system now in use, should be ready by 2023 (https://tinyurl.com/bdheyvmt).
The W87-1 modification program will support deployment of the U.S. Air Force’s Ground Based Strategic Deterrent by 2030 (https://tinyurl.com/mr44kp7s).
Meanwhile, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion are “core elements of our values.” Further evolution is likely: “Currently, the United States government Equal Employment Opportunity (EEO) reporting requirements use the gender categories of male and female. We are currently reviewing the way we collect and display data” (https://tinyurl.com/bdf9mv2s).
Put out Fires
Essential immediate post-attack work includes extinguishing fires. People following the “Get Inside, Stay Inside” advice might burn to death. Some cities might be subject to firestorms, Jones warns. Everything is knocked down, smolders for about 20 minutes, and can then burst into flame.
Evidence and Simulations
John Kerry, U.S. special envoy for climate, warned of “massive emissions consequences” from a Russian war against Ukraine, which he also said would be a distraction from work on climate change. Nevertheless, he added, “I hope President Putin will help us to stay on track with respect to what we need to do for the climate” (https://tinyurl.com/e9aux8jk).
Although he was Secretary of State when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, he apparently was less concerned about the consequences of war for Ukrainians. He has faith in computer climate models, despite their dismal record for accuracy, but not in satellite evidence of Russian troop movements, global temperature measurements showing that atmospheric warming is not dangerous, or photographs showing greening of the earth from increased CO2 fertilization (https://tinyurl.com/e9aux8jk).
Kerry told the BBC that he hopes Mr. Putin realizes northern Russia is thawing, “and his infrastructure is at risk, and the people of Russia are at risk” (https://tinyurl.com/3n5dk2rd).
NATO Involvement
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned that the Russia-Ukraine war could escalate into a “major” conflict, according to an article just published in Newsweek. Still, he expressed confidence that NATO “will avoid that” due to its increased presence in Eastern Europe, having enhanced the number of troops in several countries including Poland, Estonia, and Hungary “to deter attacks against NATO” (tinyurl.com/27rj9pyv).
From a Russian viewpoint, NATO involvement is massive. “Indian Commissar” who has a Communist flag in his avatar and often posts in Russian, writes: “I really hope, Russian people realize that West (under Satanic control) is NOT satisfied with the collapse/disintegration of the USSR and that they (West) want to finish Hitler’s unfinished business to completely destroy Russia” (https://tinyurl.com/2dxexwxx).
He states that up to 100,000 U.S. special forces and regular military troops are in countries bordering Ukraine. A video by Face the Nation shows a live-fire exercise that is not against a hypothetical, but a real enemy (https://tinyurl.com/2fxz8whf).
Willian Schryver wrote on July 11 that NATO is “playing with fire.” He states that U.S. intelligence operatives and special forces have been deployed in Ukraine throughout the ongoing war and are directly involved in attacking Russian targets. They provide “hands-on” training and likely direct operation of U.S. advanced weaponry, which has resulted in the killing of Russian field commanders, possibly the sinking of the Moskva, and attacks on Russian-sympathizing civilians.
“What the Russians will do in response to this direct U.S. involvement in the war—and when—remains to be seen.” Shooting down unmanned, and then manned ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) assets over the “theater” including the Baltic Sea is one possibility (tinyurl.com/2p8sm283).
We are in a pregnant war time. That is the last stages of covert war before all out nuclear war breaks out. It was said during WWII and a couple of decades afterward,
“there are no atheists in foxholes.” Unfortunately it is doubtful if young people know what “foxhole” means or the definition of “atheist.”
Prayer works, especially when all earthly avenues have been exhausted. A few years ago my father who was 92 was asked if he had been moved by the rapid change in his life time. His reply was that it came so gradually so as not to be shocking in anyway. Though no doubt when the atomic bombs went off in Japan, those Americans in their 70’s and 80’s were born at a time when muskets were still used in warefare, ships were still made of wood with sails. Horse and buggy is all they knew for the majority of their lives.
In World War I the generals of the day were not familiar with the advances in modern weaponry so casualties were catastrophic. Even as late as World War II cavalry was used by the Poles to charge against German tanks.
Today, advances in modern warfare have far outstripped our ability to comprehend what is even going on. Some say WWII never ended only the shooting stopped.
Since that time Americans have been subjected to a subtle war of propaganda, such that most Americans beli eve that nuclear war is unsurvivable and there is nothing you can do to prepare against its eventuality. As a nation we are asleep to the danger we are in. Those of us who appear as Cassandras are just that.
Somehow, for some reason, humans refuse to prepare for a rainy day. Thus we build cities on flood lands by the sea and houses that blow down easily if they don’t float away first in storms.
There is hope today to not only save many millions of lives but our country as a viable nation as well. As the danger of nuclear war grows more apparent, our nation’s Nuclear War Survival Skills plan can kick in. It is available to all on the Internet. A simple read of that manual will improve a person’s chance of survival by 90%.
In 1976 my wife and I joined the Mormon church. At that time all members were asked to have a year’s supply of food in storage. That was accomplished mostly through storing wheat and sugar that never spoils along with dry milk and sundries. A plan of rotation was recommended for the dry milk and sundries.
Sadly that program ended or just faded away and is now lost in memory. Even back then less than 20% of the “good” Mormons stored food. and less than that read their own scriptures. Sadly few Christians have actually read the Bible. Even among the seemingly fanatical Evangelicals it is probably less than 10%.
I say that because we now live in very Biblical times. The most notable is the “mark of the beast” from Revelations written many centuries ago. There is a requirement for solo voyaging across our world’s oceans. That is the gift of “foreknowledge.” You must have that if you are to survive alone across the seas. Foreknowledge is the knowledge that something is going to break before it breaks, or a storm is coming when all indications are, including weather reports, that no such storm is coming.
For those who have read Nuclear War Survival Skills it is time to review it even now, at least the first 35 pages. It is interesting that the time we live in now are described in that manual in the chapter about how we can know we are going into a nuclear war. In that respect Nuclear War Survival Skills is almost Biblical or prophetic. Although it does not require a prophet to forecast rain if dark clouds hide the sun and the air is hot and humid.
Those of us living today were born into a world at war. I was born during the Korean war. Those before me were born during WWII and thoses after during Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and now we are at war in Ukraine.
It is human nature to go into denial when faced with serious danger. Most people are in denial regarding their own mortality. We live for the most part as if we were immortal. So too as the nuclear war danger is acute we occupy ourselves with every day trivia, Hollywood gossip or endless diversions on the Internet.
It’s been over 40 years since Doctors for Disaster Preparedness was created to supplant our nations decaying Civil Defense. Even today for the most part Doctors for Disaster Preparedness has moved off topic to cover other danger than nuclear.
Few are interested or care about nuclear preparedness today and Doctors For Disaster Preparedness would have dried up and blew away years ago if it had focused only on Civil Defense. Still, even though it is dying embers, Doctors For Disaster Preparedness still contains the spark that can light the fire of Civil Defense for our nation in a manner that can happen literally overnight.
That is happening now!