Coronavirus Has International Impact

The World Health Organization (WHO) is meeting to decide whether to declare the 2019-nCoV a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).

An interactive map shows the progress of the disease: 7,783 confirmed cases at this moment, and 170 deaths. Since diagnostic test kits are not widely available, the number of actual cases is unknown.

Also still unknown: how easily is the virus transmitted, can it be transmitted by a person who has no symptoms or fever, and what is the mortality rate? So, should we be more or less worried than we are about the usual seasonal influenza, which has reportedly caused 8,200 deaths and 140,000 hospitalizations so far this year?

Even if public health authorities in both China and the U.S. are being completely transparent, projections could be massively wrong if the virus mutates to become more or less lethal or transmissible.

Two things are certain:

(1) The U.S. is not prepared to cope with a 1918-scale epidemic and urgently needs to remedy the lack of surge capacity for medical facilities, personnel, and supplies. Citizens need to have an insurance policy: supplies they need to self-isolate at home, and knowledge to care for a sick family member. See Three Seconds until Midnight by Dr. Steven Hatfill, et al., and its on-line self-help sources (here and here).

(2) The economic consequences will be vast. With 17 Chinese cities already locked down and further restrictions likely, factories are likely to face worker shortages or extended shutdowns. The supply of essential drugs in the U.S. and elsewhere is critically dependent on China—for finished products or precursors, as Rosemary Gibson points out in her book China Rx. The U.S. cannot even make penicillin. Other industries vulnerable to disruptions in the supply chain are defense, computers especially Apple, automobile manufacturers, and suppliers of masks and other protective medical equipment.

For further information, see Doctors for Disaster Preparedness Newsletter, September 2019.

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